10 million votes to elect Panlilio and Padaca in 2010

A major concern for people who expressed their excitement in news regarding the possible candidacy of Among Ed Panlilio and Grace Padaca in 2010 is their ability to win.

Some (or most) people only vote for winners. Regardless of principle, political stand or affiliation, they would never vote for a loser (or a probable loser). There is a certain level of pride when you can tell yourself that you voted for the person who won.

This mentality is very alarming. It leads to self-fulfilling prophecies. If everybody (or the majority or plurality in an election) thinks the a candidate will lose, then, no one will vote for that person, and he will definitely lose. This mentality also re-enforces the need for early campaigning and expensive media campaign, the same expensive campaigning that leads to a circle of corruption and vote buying. I hope that there will come a time that people will feel prouder when they vote for a candidate with principles no matter what.

This leads me to a crude analysis on voters decide and how elections are won in the Philippines.

FOUR GROUPS OF VOTERS
Sadly, up to 40% of votes cast are sold (the sold vote) and can be bought by the highest bidder. This can be done through direct vote buying or through organized vote buying. Direct vote buying involves giving cash, groceries, rice and other goods to registered voters. Organized vote buying involves talking to the leader of an organization, group or company. Money and/or favor is negotiated between  the leaders, and the followers vote whoever the leader dictates. The leader can be a local political leader, a union leader, an elder in the community or the head of the household.

Around 30% of the vote goes to the popular candidate ( the popular vote). Popularity may be based on different factors such as looks, gender, box-office performance, links to celebrities and other politicians, etc. Some people vote for candidates with the best campaign slogan, the prettiest or largest campaign poster, or name that is easiest to recall (hence the proliferation two-letter-named-candidates in Quezon City). Rumors can easily sway the popular vote to and from the candidates.

Only around 25% of votes can be considered as the thinking vote. Voters who thoroughly assess each and every candidate's platform, track record and political stand. Most of the thinking votes go to the least evil, after finding all candidates imperfect.

The remaining  5% of votes are cast by religious blocks.I am not sure how the religious leader decides on who his or her flock should vote. Five percent might be very small but it can decide a close race. 

CAVEATS. 
1. People can easily move from one category to the other. Some members of religious groups that practices block voting tend not to vote at all if they really cannot accept their leader's anointed candidate. Some people vote for the popular candidate even if they have sold their votes. Some people will vote for the person they really like and accept payment for the vote (iboboto ko din naman talaga sya, bonus na yung pera).

2. It is very hard to discern between the popular vote and the thinking vote. Some people may cite certain profound reasons for voting for a certain candidate, but deep inside, they vote for him because he is cute. Or the other way around, "I don't like him because of his stand on nuclear power, but really, it is just his hair style that I cannot stand."

3. The grouping of voters I presented knows no income classes, educational attainment or religious beliefs. Contrary to popular belief, you can buy the votes of rich people, you just have to pay a higher price. Not all people with college and graduate degrees vote intelligently, some vote with their religion others vote with popularity.

When making their political strategy, most politicians and their advisers consider all the groups. Politics and elections are all about addition; a candidate must be able to get some or all of each group in order to win.

In a crowded race like the coming 2010 elections, a candidate can win by as small as 20% of the vote (In 1992, Ramos won 23.6% of votes with a margin of around 875,000). There are around 45 million registered voters for the coming election, the winning candidate must get at least 10 million votes. 

And this is the tricky part in the campaign of Among Ed and Grace. They can get some of the thinking vote, some of the popular vote but definitely none of the sold vote and the religious block vote.

The hope is that the wealthy candidates (those with a war chest of PhP2 billion or more) will outbid each other and divide evenly among themselves the sold votes (40% of 45 million = 18 million sold votes divided by 4 rich candidates = 4.5 million votes each). Since these wealthy candidates are also popular, the hope is that they also divide the non-thinking popular votes (30% of 45 million = 13.5 million popular votes divided by 4 celebrity candidates = 3.375 million votes each). A rich, celebrity-type candidate can get around 8 million votes, still shy of the 10 million needed to win.

This is meant to bring good news to supporters of Panlilio- Padaca tandem. It means that by targeting 10 million thinking voters, Panlilio and Padaca can win. There is also a very strong need to convert as many voters possible from a sold voter or popular voter to a thinking candidate.

The campaign for Governors Panlilio and Padaca will never be easy, but stakes are very high and we cannot afford another corrupt and incompetent leader. We owe it to ourselves and the future generation!