Host: Ses
Location: Avida New Manila Clubhouse
Monday, December 21, 2009
Monday, July 6, 2009
Tuesday, June 9, 2009
5 disgusting things in Philippine politics (no. 2: House politics)
When I first thought about this entry, I was outraged by the way our politicians bastardized the party-list system.
On how a novel idea of marginal representation was abused with the entry of the sons of Mike Velarde and Eddie Villanueva as partylist representatives. Partylist representation should enable groups and sectors marginalized by our society can be represented in Congress. It turned out that the system was used by people unpopular enough to be elected as usual Congressmen in their districts to sneak into Congress.
But it only gets worse, armed with a Supreme Court decision the number of Congressmen was expanded. Hence, partylist representatives including a child of Sen. Miriam Defensor Santiago were joined by Pres. GMA's sister and her favorite general.
Not to be outdone, the regular members of the House of Representatives did something more reprehensible. They passed a resolution to convene a Constituent-Assembly (Con Ass) for Charter Change (Cha Cha).
While I do agree that certain provisions of the constitution must be revised, this is not the right process for one simple reason: I DO NOT TRUST OUR CURRENT CONGRESSMEN AND SENATORS!!!
I DO NOT TRUST Prospero Nograles!
I DO NOT TRUST the Arroyos (there are now 4 Arroyo congresspeople)!
I DO NOT TRUST the members of political clans in Congress (that would account for about 80% to 90% of all Congressmen and Senators)!
I DO NOT TRUST pork-barrel loving politicians!
I DO NOT TRUST our district's congressman Pedro Pancho! (who is always with the administration and is related to C.M. Pancho Construction, one of the firms banned due to the World Bank Road Mess)
I DO NOT TRUST politicians in general!
On how a novel idea of marginal representation was abused with the entry of the sons of Mike Velarde and Eddie Villanueva as partylist representatives. Partylist representation should enable groups and sectors marginalized by our society can be represented in Congress. It turned out that the system was used by people unpopular enough to be elected as usual Congressmen in their districts to sneak into Congress.
But it only gets worse, armed with a Supreme Court decision the number of Congressmen was expanded. Hence, partylist representatives including a child of Sen. Miriam Defensor Santiago were joined by Pres. GMA's sister and her favorite general.
Not to be outdone, the regular members of the House of Representatives did something more reprehensible. They passed a resolution to convene a Constituent-Assembly (Con Ass) for Charter Change (Cha Cha).
While I do agree that certain provisions of the constitution must be revised, this is not the right process for one simple reason: I DO NOT TRUST OUR CURRENT CONGRESSMEN AND SENATORS!!!
I DO NOT TRUST Prospero Nograles!
I DO NOT TRUST the Arroyos (there are now 4 Arroyo congresspeople)!
I DO NOT TRUST the members of political clans in Congress (that would account for about 80% to 90% of all Congressmen and Senators)!
I DO NOT TRUST pork-barrel loving politicians!
I DO NOT TRUST our district's congressman Pedro Pancho! (who is always with the administration and is related to C.M. Pancho Construction, one of the firms banned due to the World Bank Road Mess)
I DO NOT TRUST politicians in general!
Wednesday, May 27, 2009
5 disgusting things in Philippine politics (no. 3: Senate politics)
I just need to get this off my chest... I am really disgusted by the Philippine Senate. But I am not sure which one disgusts me the most:
1. That people like Haydee Yorac, Winnie Monsod, Perfecto Yasay and Bobby de Ocampo were denied membership to this exclusive club called the Philippine Senate.
2. That people like Jawo, Freddie Webb, Lito Lapid, Gringo, Ramon Revilla Sr., Ramon Revilla Jr. were granted membership.
2.a. That Jamby Madrigal was granted membership after recruiting Judy Anne Santos (during the campaign, she constantly reminded people to vote for Jamby and not Juday).
3. That the Senate is willing to remove one of its members just to minimize his chances of becoming President of the Philippines even if the accusations were absurd (as Joker said, they all approved the Appropriations Bill, then they are all liable. It means that they sign laws even without reading it.).
4. That the former Senate President, who is under threat to become expelled-Senator, launched a 5minute- radio campaign ad featuring Boy Abunda to denounce the charges (what a statesman).
5. That Senator Sipag at Tiyaga dragged his daughter to a press conference to attest to his innocence in the Sentae mess (and then they ask for privacy when their children are questioned???) (what a family man)
6. That presidentiable-senators seem to be happy that the country will enter recession because it will be a good campaign piece against the administration.
7. That the Senate is spending more time doing investigations-in-aid-of-reelection instead of passing laws while we are about to enter recession.
8. That the Senate has Juan Ponce Enrile as Senate President.
9. That the Senate has Jinggoy Estrada as Senate President Pro-Tempore.
10. That the Senate has Juan Miguel Zubiri as Majority Leader.
1. That people like Haydee Yorac, Winnie Monsod, Perfecto Yasay and Bobby de Ocampo were denied membership to this exclusive club called the Philippine Senate.
2. That people like Jawo, Freddie Webb, Lito Lapid, Gringo, Ramon Revilla Sr., Ramon Revilla Jr. were granted membership.
2.a. That Jamby Madrigal was granted membership after recruiting Judy Anne Santos (during the campaign, she constantly reminded people to vote for Jamby and not Juday).
3. That the Senate is willing to remove one of its members just to minimize his chances of becoming President of the Philippines even if the accusations were absurd (as Joker said, they all approved the Appropriations Bill, then they are all liable. It means that they sign laws even without reading it.).
4. That the former Senate President, who is under threat to become expelled-Senator, launched a 5minute- radio campaign ad featuring Boy Abunda to denounce the charges (what a statesman).
5. That Senator Sipag at Tiyaga dragged his daughter to a press conference to attest to his innocence in the Sentae mess (and then they ask for privacy when their children are questioned???) (what a family man)
6. That presidentiable-senators seem to be happy that the country will enter recession because it will be a good campaign piece against the administration.
7. That the Senate is spending more time doing investigations-in-aid-of-reelection instead of passing laws while we are about to enter recession.
8. That the Senate has Juan Ponce Enrile as Senate President.
9. That the Senate has Jinggoy Estrada as Senate President Pro-Tempore.
10. That the Senate has Juan Miguel Zubiri as Majority Leader.
Thursday, May 14, 2009
5 disgusting things in Philippine politics (no. 4: Rape)
Coming in no. 4 for my list of 5 disgusting things in Philippine politics is the case of "Filipina "Nicole", American US Soldier Daniel Smith and whatever happened before and after that incident in Subic.
Rape is typically defined as forced, unwanted sexual intercourse or sex without mutual consent. We may never really know what really happened that fateful day. According to a Makati judge, it was rape. But according to our Court of Appeals, it was not rape, it was a romantic encounter.
But more than just sex, rape is about power. The act involves the desire of individuals to dominate over others. Hence, rape is found in almost all societies, regardless of economic or income class and regardless of political or social structure. It is used a weapon in wars and conflicts. We also see rape used against vulnerable members of the society, like children and women. Because rape is more about power, it should not be a mystery why most rape cases were perpetrated by people whom the victims knew.
Looking at the Subic incident at a bigger context, both Nicole and Smith can be seen as victims. They may have been used as pawns in an international chess game played by the US and the Philippines. You may look at it this way, Bush felt betrayed by GMA's decision to pull out of Iraq. But GMA found a bargaining chip, a US soldier that can be jailed in a Philippine prison. This is a huge embarrassment for Bush's global war on terror. A bargain was struck, Smith is convicted but jailed inside the US Embassy.
Then, here comes the Obama Administration with less focus on war but more on the economy. Nobody really knows what GMA and Obama talked about when he called, but a lot of things happened after that phone call. Smith's conviction was reversed and he was immediately whisked back to the US.
Obama could have say any of the two
1. "okay, jail Smith, we don't care"
2. "okay... I don't know what is the deal between you and Bush, but please free him now and we will include Filipino veterans in our recovery package"
Whatever really happened, what we know is that Nicole is in the US right now with her American groom-to-be who is also a soldier. Smith is also in the US with no military career and a dishonorable discharge.
While in the Philippines, we are at odds on how to deal with this issue. When economic, political and social realities clash with the quest for truth, justice and the rule of law, where do we draw the line? In other countries, debate ensues regarding principles, laws and direction the country will go to. Here, we focus on the drama of the individuals involved. (too much telenovela is bad for our country's future)
There is a very thin line dividing "blaming the victim" and "asking people to take precautions, so that they will not be a victim." It is true that nobody wakes up in the morning hoping to be raped. But you cannot also blame people when they say that "if she were not in that bar, drinking and dancing as if there is no tomorrow, she would not end up in that situation." This thin line, our Justice Secretary always carelessly crosses.
But what can we do, as long as his remarks can add up to the drama, then we can comfortably watch our evening news and our primetime telenovelas even if there are no clear distinctions between them.
Rape is typically defined as forced, unwanted sexual intercourse or sex without mutual consent. We may never really know what really happened that fateful day. According to a Makati judge, it was rape. But according to our Court of Appeals, it was not rape, it was a romantic encounter.
But more than just sex, rape is about power. The act involves the desire of individuals to dominate over others. Hence, rape is found in almost all societies, regardless of economic or income class and regardless of political or social structure. It is used a weapon in wars and conflicts. We also see rape used against vulnerable members of the society, like children and women. Because rape is more about power, it should not be a mystery why most rape cases were perpetrated by people whom the victims knew.
Looking at the Subic incident at a bigger context, both Nicole and Smith can be seen as victims. They may have been used as pawns in an international chess game played by the US and the Philippines. You may look at it this way, Bush felt betrayed by GMA's decision to pull out of Iraq. But GMA found a bargaining chip, a US soldier that can be jailed in a Philippine prison. This is a huge embarrassment for Bush's global war on terror. A bargain was struck, Smith is convicted but jailed inside the US Embassy.
Then, here comes the Obama Administration with less focus on war but more on the economy. Nobody really knows what GMA and Obama talked about when he called, but a lot of things happened after that phone call. Smith's conviction was reversed and he was immediately whisked back to the US.
Obama could have say any of the two
1. "okay, jail Smith, we don't care"
2. "okay... I don't know what is the deal between you and Bush, but please free him now and we will include Filipino veterans in our recovery package"
Whatever really happened, what we know is that Nicole is in the US right now with her American groom-to-be who is also a soldier. Smith is also in the US with no military career and a dishonorable discharge.
While in the Philippines, we are at odds on how to deal with this issue. When economic, political and social realities clash with the quest for truth, justice and the rule of law, where do we draw the line? In other countries, debate ensues regarding principles, laws and direction the country will go to. Here, we focus on the drama of the individuals involved. (too much telenovela is bad for our country's future)
There is a very thin line dividing "blaming the victim" and "asking people to take precautions, so that they will not be a victim." It is true that nobody wakes up in the morning hoping to be raped. But you cannot also blame people when they say that "if she were not in that bar, drinking and dancing as if there is no tomorrow, she would not end up in that situation." This thin line, our Justice Secretary always carelessly crosses.
But what can we do, as long as his remarks can add up to the drama, then we can comfortably watch our evening news and our primetime telenovelas even if there are no clear distinctions between them.
Thursday, April 30, 2009
5 disgusting things in Philippine politics (no. 5)
April is a busy month... summer vacations, out-of-town trips and numerous adventures. But no matter how frustrated you get with the way the weather ruins all your plans, Philippine politics undoubtedly is far from being frustrating, it is disgusting. Here are five of the most disgusting things in Philippine politics:
5. GMA legacy "investments"
When we went to Los Baños, Laguna, we stayed at Trace Suites, a hotel inside Trace Colleges- Los Baños Campus. It is where the swimming and diving competitions f
or the most recent ASEAN Games were held. It also hosted the swimsuit competition for the Miss Earth Beauty Pageant. We were surprised and amazed on how a small, relatively unheard college could afford such a expensive aquatics facility and hotel complex.
When we learned that Trace College is owned by the family of PAGCOR Chairman Efraim Genuino, all our questions are answered. We were surprised further when our friends from UPLB
told us that the real owners of the hotel and college is the First Family.
When we went to Coron, Palawan, our tour guide told us that the governor, allegedly in partnership with the First Family is building a new hotel and resort complex in Coron (they are referred to as The Boracay Group).
And a friend who just came back from Mindanao, told me that a new chain of gasoline station sprung up all over Mindanao, Phoenix Petroleum. Its biggest endorser/part-owner is Manny Pacquiao. However, rumor has it that the real owners of the gas company is... the First Family.
Is this GMA's legacy??? Crony investments similar to what the Marcoses did? Simply disgusting....
5. GMA legacy "investments"
When we went to Los Baños, Laguna, we stayed at Trace Suites, a hotel inside Trace Colleges- Los Baños Campus. It is where the swimming and diving competitions f
or the most recent ASEAN Games were held. It also hosted the swimsuit competition for the Miss Earth Beauty Pageant. We were surprised and amazed on how a small, relatively unheard college could afford such a expensive aquatics facility and hotel complex. When we learned that Trace College is owned by the family of PAGCOR Chairman Efraim Genuino, all our questions are answered. We were surprised further when our friends from UPLB
told us that the real owners of the hotel and college is the First Family. When we went to Coron, Palawan, our tour guide told us that the governor, allegedly in partnership with the First Family is building a new hotel and resort complex in Coron (they are referred to as The Boracay Group).
And a friend who just came back from Mindanao, told me that a new chain of gasoline station sprung up all over Mindanao, Phoenix Petroleum. Its biggest endorser/part-owner is Manny Pacquiao. However, rumor has it that the real owners of the gas company is... the First Family.
Is this GMA's legacy??? Crony investments similar to what the Marcoses did? Simply disgusting....
Tuesday, March 31, 2009
We are Filipinos, we can't take jokes!!!
Will the world never learn? Filipinos are happy people, we often smile and laugh, but never, ever say anything against us... we won't like it. We cannot take jokes. We do not appreciate satire. American actress Claire Danes said that Manila is dirty and full of rats. We banned her movies and declared her a persona non grata. Teri Hatcher in the US series "Desperate Housewives" quipped about Filipino doctors with fake diplomas. We demanded apology and the deletion of the scene. British Broadcasting Company (BBC) aired in one of its channels a comedy show where a Filipina maid was coaxed to have sex with a British man. We demanded apology and asked for the deletion of the scene.
And now, a Hong Kong-Chinese wrote a satirical article in Hong Kong Magazine regarding the brewing territorial war between China and the Philippines over the Spratly Group of Islands. He wrote that the Philippines is a "nation of servants" (read the full article here).
We felt insulted and demanded an apology. The article was removed from the publisher's website while the publisher gave a non-apology apology:
"The publisher and editors of HK Magazine wish to apologize unreservedly for any offense that may have been caused by Chip Tsao's column dated March 27... One aspect of satire is that it can at times be read in different ways. In this particular case, many people have read meanings unto this column that were never actually intended." (read the complete apology here)
Here are the ironies highlighted by Mr. Tsao. First, his domestic helper is a graduate of University of Manila. In other countries, "University" plus name of capital is reserved for the leading or most prestigious university in the country. Like University of Tokyo or University of Paris. In the Philippines, University of Manila is not even included in the top-5 universities. Whether Mr. Tsao knows that or do not, I am not sure. But any casual observer can misinterpret that a graduate of University of Manila is among the country's best and brightest.
Second, her domestic helper has a college degree in International Politics. To clarify things, University of Manila does not offer International Politics, the closest they have is BA major in Political Science (according to wikipedia, their website is blank). The main issue is that a lot of Filipina domestic helpers in Hon Kong are college graduates. They may seem overqualified for the job but I am not really so sure. This highlights serious problems with our educational system and the availability of jobs for college graduates in the Philippines.
Third, the article highlights the sad state of our Navy and Military. I think the main point of the article is to mock the might (or lack of it) of our military. Mr. Tsao wrote "she would pay taxes to her government, and they would fund a navy to invade our motherland and deeply hurt my feelings."
While Filipinos all over the world have the right to feel offended and get angry at Mr. Tsao's article, there are several issues I have to raise.
First, newspapers and media reports wrongfully translated "nation of servants" into "bayan ng mga alipin." Alipin is translated into English as slave, a servant is literally translated as tagapag-silbi or katulong. I'll be offended if I was called a slave, but with servant, I am not sure. However, I remember that Congress already outlawed the use of the term "katulong" and we now call them "kasambahay" or "housemate". Will Mr. Tsao be considered less racist if he calls us a "nation of housemates"?
Second, whenever issues like these are raised with sign online petitions and demand apologies from the people who offended us. But we never look at ourselves and demand apology from our leaders and ourselves.
After we banned Claire Danes from our country and our cinemas, have we made Manila cleaner and less rat-infested?
After we got the producers of Desperate Housewives to delete that scene about Filipino doctors, have we forced Recto University out of business? We have cleansed our country of fake diplomas and transcripts of record?
After we got an apology from BBC, have we ensured that no Filipino will ever be subjected to human trafficking, illegal prostitution and/or abuse? Have we increased the level of protection for our Filipino workers regardless of occupation?
The answers are No, No, No, No and No. We should start demanding for an apology from our leaders for allowing us to become the butt of jokes around the world. After an apology, we should demand action so that this will never happen again. Not by censoring all the jokes and references to us, but by improving our conditions and sending the right signal to the world!
Now, regarding Mr. Tsao's alleged racism let me leave you lines from a song from Tony-Award winning musical Avenue Q:
Ethnic jokes might be uncouth,
But you laugh because
They're based on truth.
Don't take them as
Personal attacks.
Everyone enjoys them -
So relax!
If we all could just admit
That we are racist a little bit,
Even though we all know
That it's wrong,
Maybe it would help us
Get along.
Everyone's a little bit racist
It's true.
But everyone is just about
As racist as you!
If we all could just admit
That we are racist a little bit,
And everyone stopped being
So PC
Maybe we could live in -
Harmony!
HAPPY APRIL FOOLS DAY!!!!
Friday, March 27, 2009
10 million votes to elect Panlilio and Padaca in 2010
A major concern for people who expressed their excitement in news regarding the possible candidacy of Among Ed Panlilio and Grace Padaca in 2010 is their ability to win.
Some (or most) people only vote for winners. Regardless of principle, political stand or affiliation, they would never vote for a loser (or a probable loser). There is a certain level of pride when you can tell yourself that you voted for the person who won.
This mentality is very alarming. It leads to self-fulfilling prophecies. If everybody (or the majority or plurality in an election) thinks the a candidate will lose, then, no one will vote for that person, and he will definitely lose. This mentality also re-enforces the need for early campaigning and expensive media campaign, the same expensive campaigning that leads to a circle of corruption and vote buying. I hope that there will come a time that people will feel prouder when they vote for a candidate with principles no matter what.
This leads me to a crude analysis on voters decide and how elections are won in the Philippines.
FOUR GROUPS OF VOTERS
Sadly, up to 40% of votes cast are sold (the sold vote) and can be bought by the highest bidder. This can be done through direct vote buying or through organized vote buying. Direct vote buying involves giving cash, groceries, rice and other goods to registered voters. Organized vote buying involves talking to the leader of an organization, group or company. Money and/or favor is negotiated between the leaders, and the followers vote whoever the leader dictates. The leader can be a local political leader, a union leader, an elder in the community or the head of the household.
Around 30% of the vote goes to the popular candidate ( the popular vote). Popularity may be based on different factors such as looks, gender, box-office performance, links to celebrities and other politicians, etc. Some people vote for candidates with the best campaign slogan, the prettiest or largest campaign poster, or name that is easiest to recall (hence the proliferation two-letter-named-candidates in Quezon City). Rumors can easily sway the popular vote to and from the candidates.
Only around 25% of votes can be considered as the thinking vote. Voters who thoroughly assess each and every candidate's platform, track record and political stand. Most of the thinking votes go to the least evil, after finding all candidates imperfect.
The remaining 5% of votes are cast by religious blocks.I am not sure how the religious leader decides on who his or her flock should vote. Five percent might be very small but it can decide a close race.
CAVEATS.
1. People can easily move from one category to the other. Some members of religious groups that practices block voting tend not to vote at all if they really cannot accept their leader's anointed candidate. Some people vote for the popular candidate even if they have sold their votes. Some people will vote for the person they really like and accept payment for the vote (iboboto ko din naman talaga sya, bonus na yung pera).
2. It is very hard to discern between the popular vote and the thinking vote. Some people may cite certain profound reasons for voting for a certain candidate, but deep inside, they vote for him because he is cute. Or the other way around, "I don't like him because of his stand on nuclear power, but really, it is just his hair style that I cannot stand."
3. The grouping of voters I presented knows no income classes, educational attainment or religious beliefs. Contrary to popular belief, you can buy the votes of rich people, you just have to pay a higher price. Not all people with college and graduate degrees vote intelligently, some vote with their religion others vote with popularity.
When making their political strategy, most politicians and their advisers consider all the groups. Politics and elections are all about addition; a candidate must be able to get some or all of each group in order to win.
In a crowded race like the coming 2010 elections, a candidate can win by as small as 20% of the vote (In 1992, Ramos won 23.6% of votes with a margin of around 875,000). There are around 45 million registered voters for the coming election, the winning candidate must get at least 10 million votes.
And this is the tricky part in the campaign of Among Ed and Grace. They can get some of the thinking vote, some of the popular vote but definitely none of the sold vote and the religious block vote.
The hope is that the wealthy candidates (those with a war chest of PhP2 billion or more) will outbid each other and divide evenly among themselves the sold votes (40% of 45 million = 18 million sold votes divided by 4 rich candidates = 4.5 million votes each). Since these wealthy candidates are also popular, the hope is that they also divide the non-thinking popular votes (30% of 45 million = 13.5 million popular votes divided by 4 celebrity candidates = 3.375 million votes each). A rich, celebrity-type candidate can get around 8 million votes, still shy of the 10 million needed to win.
This is meant to bring good news to supporters of Panlilio- Padaca tandem. It means that by targeting 10 million thinking voters, Panlilio and Padaca can win. There is also a very strong need to convert as many voters possible from a sold voter or popular voter to a thinking candidate.
The campaign for Governors Panlilio and Padaca will never be easy, but stakes are very high and we cannot afford another corrupt and incompetent leader. We owe it to ourselves and the future generation!
Some (or most) people only vote for winners. Regardless of principle, political stand or affiliation, they would never vote for a loser (or a probable loser). There is a certain level of pride when you can tell yourself that you voted for the person who won.
This mentality is very alarming. It leads to self-fulfilling prophecies. If everybody (or the majority or plurality in an election) thinks the a candidate will lose, then, no one will vote for that person, and he will definitely lose. This mentality also re-enforces the need for early campaigning and expensive media campaign, the same expensive campaigning that leads to a circle of corruption and vote buying. I hope that there will come a time that people will feel prouder when they vote for a candidate with principles no matter what.
This leads me to a crude analysis on voters decide and how elections are won in the Philippines.
FOUR GROUPS OF VOTERS
Sadly, up to 40% of votes cast are sold (the sold vote) and can be bought by the highest bidder. This can be done through direct vote buying or through organized vote buying. Direct vote buying involves giving cash, groceries, rice and other goods to registered voters. Organized vote buying involves talking to the leader of an organization, group or company. Money and/or favor is negotiated between the leaders, and the followers vote whoever the leader dictates. The leader can be a local political leader, a union leader, an elder in the community or the head of the household.
Around 30% of the vote goes to the popular candidate ( the popular vote). Popularity may be based on different factors such as looks, gender, box-office performance, links to celebrities and other politicians, etc. Some people vote for candidates with the best campaign slogan, the prettiest or largest campaign poster, or name that is easiest to recall (hence the proliferation two-letter-named-candidates in Quezon City). Rumors can easily sway the popular vote to and from the candidates.
Only around 25% of votes can be considered as the thinking vote. Voters who thoroughly assess each and every candidate's platform, track record and political stand. Most of the thinking votes go to the least evil, after finding all candidates imperfect.
The remaining 5% of votes are cast by religious blocks.I am not sure how the religious leader decides on who his or her flock should vote. Five percent might be very small but it can decide a close race.
CAVEATS.
1. People can easily move from one category to the other. Some members of religious groups that practices block voting tend not to vote at all if they really cannot accept their leader's anointed candidate. Some people vote for the popular candidate even if they have sold their votes. Some people will vote for the person they really like and accept payment for the vote (iboboto ko din naman talaga sya, bonus na yung pera).
2. It is very hard to discern between the popular vote and the thinking vote. Some people may cite certain profound reasons for voting for a certain candidate, but deep inside, they vote for him because he is cute. Or the other way around, "I don't like him because of his stand on nuclear power, but really, it is just his hair style that I cannot stand."
3. The grouping of voters I presented knows no income classes, educational attainment or religious beliefs. Contrary to popular belief, you can buy the votes of rich people, you just have to pay a higher price. Not all people with college and graduate degrees vote intelligently, some vote with their religion others vote with popularity.
When making their political strategy, most politicians and their advisers consider all the groups. Politics and elections are all about addition; a candidate must be able to get some or all of each group in order to win.
In a crowded race like the coming 2010 elections, a candidate can win by as small as 20% of the vote (In 1992, Ramos won 23.6% of votes with a margin of around 875,000). There are around 45 million registered voters for the coming election, the winning candidate must get at least 10 million votes.
And this is the tricky part in the campaign of Among Ed and Grace. They can get some of the thinking vote, some of the popular vote but definitely none of the sold vote and the religious block vote.
The hope is that the wealthy candidates (those with a war chest of PhP2 billion or more) will outbid each other and divide evenly among themselves the sold votes (40% of 45 million = 18 million sold votes divided by 4 rich candidates = 4.5 million votes each). Since these wealthy candidates are also popular, the hope is that they also divide the non-thinking popular votes (30% of 45 million = 13.5 million popular votes divided by 4 celebrity candidates = 3.375 million votes each). A rich, celebrity-type candidate can get around 8 million votes, still shy of the 10 million needed to win.
This is meant to bring good news to supporters of Panlilio- Padaca tandem. It means that by targeting 10 million thinking voters, Panlilio and Padaca can win. There is also a very strong need to convert as many voters possible from a sold voter or popular voter to a thinking candidate.
The campaign for Governors Panlilio and Padaca will never be easy, but stakes are very high and we cannot afford another corrupt and incompetent leader. We owe it to ourselves and the future generation!
Sunday, March 22, 2009
Panlilio-Padaca 2010
Even if the presidential election is more than a year away, I am already announcing my support for Among Ed Panlilio and Grace Padaca (or whomever they will support in 2010).
Previously, I have told several of my friends and colleagues that among those who have announced their intention to run for president I am likely to vote for Bayani Fernando. He has very good executive experience and a practical, can-do attitude. It seems then that he is the least among evils. I was likely to vote for him but not support and/or campaign for him.
The news about the possibility that Pampanga Governor Panlilio and Isabela Governor Padaca teaming up in 2010 brought mixed emotions. It raised my hopes up, but I fear for their safety. I imagine the groundswell of support from the grassroots and the possibility of disappointment if they lose. I have anticipated all the criticisms to be launched, character assassinations, mud slinging and all the dirty tricks than any one can think off.
Right now, the traditional political elite are cooking up plans to sabotage their campaign. Expect any or all of the following.
1. Among Ed and/or Grace Padaca have illegitimate children (this is a big issue because Among Ed is a priest while Grace is unmarried)
2. Among Ed and/or Grace Padaca had an affair with someone
3. Among Ed and/or Grace Padaca are secret NPA members or at least supported by the NPA
4. Among Ed and/or Grace Padaca are disabled hence incapable of leading (Among Ed has a skin disorder wile Grace was a polio victim. This criticism sounds stupid, biased and unfair, but their critics have no sens of fairness).
5. Among Ed and/or Grace Padaca are as corrupt as any other politician.
It will be an uphill battle and my stomach will probably turn every time I hear politicians launch any of the attacks against them. Please support them also, but please prepare for the worst.
Previously, I have told several of my friends and colleagues that among those who have announced their intention to run for president I am likely to vote for Bayani Fernando. He has very good executive experience and a practical, can-do attitude. It seems then that he is the least among evils. I was likely to vote for him but not support and/or campaign for him.
The news about the possibility that Pampanga Governor Panlilio and Isabela Governor Padaca teaming up in 2010 brought mixed emotions. It raised my hopes up, but I fear for their safety. I imagine the groundswell of support from the grassroots and the possibility of disappointment if they lose. I have anticipated all the criticisms to be launched, character assassinations, mud slinging and all the dirty tricks than any one can think off.
Right now, the traditional political elite are cooking up plans to sabotage their campaign. Expect any or all of the following.
1. Among Ed and/or Grace Padaca have illegitimate children (this is a big issue because Among Ed is a priest while Grace is unmarried)
2. Among Ed and/or Grace Padaca had an affair with someone
3. Among Ed and/or Grace Padaca are secret NPA members or at least supported by the NPA
4. Among Ed and/or Grace Padaca are disabled hence incapable of leading (Among Ed has a skin disorder wile Grace was a polio victim. This criticism sounds stupid, biased and unfair, but their critics have no sens of fairness).
5. Among Ed and/or Grace Padaca are as corrupt as any other politician.
It will be an uphill battle and my stomach will probably turn every time I hear politicians launch any of the attacks against them. Please support them also, but please prepare for the worst.
Friday, March 20, 2009
Real Men and Crying Men
While watching the news last night, I saw two commercials by Colt 45, a strong beer distributed by Asia Brewery Inc. They market the beer as "The STRONG BEER for REAL MEN."
COMMERCIAL 1. A group of "real men" are talking about an approaching girl in a swimsuit. They are generally talking about how sexy she is when one of the "real men" started talking about fashion... how her swimsuit does not match her. This not-real man was crushed by a bottle of Colt 45 with a voice over saying "real men should act like real men."
COMMERCIAL 2. A group of "real men" are watching basketball on TV. One of them receives a call in his cell phone. He promptly goes out to the lobby and tells her girlfriend mushy nothings like "I miss you na." This not-real man was crushed by a bottle of Colt 45 with a voice over saying "real men should act like real men."
I am not really a big fan of stereotypes of what a real man is. And I am definitely not a big fan of liquor (inuming nakalalasing), I can't barely finish a bottle of San Mig Light. However, there is something in the commercial that really ticked me off.
Perhaps it is their idea of what a real man is. What was clearly shown in their commercials clearly is that a real man drinks a strong beer (Colt 45), has huge muscles, watches basketball games with their buddies and 'appreciate' sexy women wearing swimsuit. What they are implying is that real men do not talk about fashion (at least not in front of other real men) and do not tell their significant others that they miss them (even if he is not in front of other real men). The extreme interpretation of the ad is that real men are not in touch with their emotions.
Whenever I hear stereotypes about real men and men in general, I remember the story by my Sikolohiyang Pilipino teacher. A girl wanted a strong, silent-type guy for a husband. She ended up marrying someone who beats her without even telling her why. It may be a bit extreme, but I don't think any of my friends and colleagues would want a partner or a husband based on Colt 45's concept of a real men.
The other possible reason why the commercials annoyed is the disconnect with the current political and social realities. Women, I believe, appreciate men in touch with their emotions. Nobody takes the most insensitive (and chauvinistic) man in the office seriously. They are often viewed as empty-headed jerks gloating about their imaginary love affairs.
Men crying in public are not seen as weak, but men who are brave enough to show their true emotions. They won admiration for revealing that they are real humans with feelings. A lot of men admitted in public that they cried when Obama won as president. The very long list included Gen. Colin Powell and Will Smith. I was teary-eyed when I was listening to Obama's Victory Speech.
Here in the Philippines, ZTE whistle-blower Jun Lozada cried in public while talking about the pains he and his family suffered when he exposed an anomalous government contract. (Lozada's former-sidekick-turned-accuser also cried in public while trying to convince people that Lozada is also a crook, he was largely dismissed.)
Crying men also won praise (and votes). Obama cried in public when he talked about the death of his grandmother. Biden choked up while talking about the accident that killed his wife and daughter and almost killed his two sons. In the Philippines, former Senator Franklin Drilon cried when the Senate voted to prevent the opening of the second envelope during Erap's impeachment trial. He was soundly re-elected.
The next time I see that Colt 45 ad, I'll probably just dismiss it (together with the other ads based on stereotypes). It is highly unlikely that I'll buy their product to show people that I am a real man. I don't have to prove anything.
One of the greatest advices I received in life was this "Boys don't cry, real men do."
COMMERCIAL 1. A group of "real men" are talking about an approaching girl in a swimsuit. They are generally talking about how sexy she is when one of the "real men" started talking about fashion... how her swimsuit does not match her. This not-real man was crushed by a bottle of Colt 45 with a voice over saying "real men should act like real men."
COMMERCIAL 2. A group of "real men" are watching basketball on TV. One of them receives a call in his cell phone. He promptly goes out to the lobby and tells her girlfriend mushy nothings like "I miss you na." This not-real man was crushed by a bottle of Colt 45 with a voice over saying "real men should act like real men."
I am not really a big fan of stereotypes of what a real man is. And I am definitely not a big fan of liquor (inuming nakalalasing), I can't barely finish a bottle of San Mig Light. However, there is something in the commercial that really ticked me off.
Perhaps it is their idea of what a real man is. What was clearly shown in their commercials clearly is that a real man drinks a strong beer (Colt 45), has huge muscles, watches basketball games with their buddies and 'appreciate' sexy women wearing swimsuit. What they are implying is that real men do not talk about fashion (at least not in front of other real men) and do not tell their significant others that they miss them (even if he is not in front of other real men). The extreme interpretation of the ad is that real men are not in touch with their emotions.
Whenever I hear stereotypes about real men and men in general, I remember the story by my Sikolohiyang Pilipino teacher. A girl wanted a strong, silent-type guy for a husband. She ended up marrying someone who beats her without even telling her why. It may be a bit extreme, but I don't think any of my friends and colleagues would want a partner or a husband based on Colt 45's concept of a real men.
The other possible reason why the commercials annoyed is the disconnect with the current political and social realities. Women, I believe, appreciate men in touch with their emotions. Nobody takes the most insensitive (and chauvinistic) man in the office seriously. They are often viewed as empty-headed jerks gloating about their imaginary love affairs.
Men crying in public are not seen as weak, but men who are brave enough to show their true emotions. They won admiration for revealing that they are real humans with feelings. A lot of men admitted in public that they cried when Obama won as president. The very long list included Gen. Colin Powell and Will Smith. I was teary-eyed when I was listening to Obama's Victory Speech.
Here in the Philippines, ZTE whistle-blower Jun Lozada cried in public while talking about the pains he and his family suffered when he exposed an anomalous government contract. (Lozada's former-sidekick-turned-accuser also cried in public while trying to convince people that Lozada is also a crook, he was largely dismissed.)
Crying men also won praise (and votes). Obama cried in public when he talked about the death of his grandmother. Biden choked up while talking about the accident that killed his wife and daughter and almost killed his two sons. In the Philippines, former Senator Franklin Drilon cried when the Senate voted to prevent the opening of the second envelope during Erap's impeachment trial. He was soundly re-elected.
The next time I see that Colt 45 ad, I'll probably just dismiss it (together with the other ads based on stereotypes). It is highly unlikely that I'll buy their product to show people that I am a real man. I don't have to prove anything.
One of the greatest advices I received in life was this "Boys don't cry, real men do."
Tuesday, March 17, 2009
Thursday, March 12, 2009
Chicken-Pork Adobo in Jollibee Hong Kong
After two days of eating 'real' Chinese and Western food, we suddenly missed Filipino food. And when accidentally found Jollibee Hong Kong near the Central MTR Station (near exit C), we made sure that we will eat there the following day. To my surprise, they serve Chicken-Pork Adobo there. Not as good as what you can buy from a Jollijeep in Makati but good enough for our craving for authentic Filipino food. Of course, they serve Chickenjoy. Most Filipinos in Hong Kong order a two-piece Chickenjoy, and when the cashier was serving a freshly cooked piece, she quipped "ang bango talaga ng manok!"
The best thing about Chickenjoy is that it is served with gravy. We ate at Mc Donald's and they do not serve gravy, only a sweet and sour sauce that they call Thai sauce. Mc Do HK also serves Mc Shaker Fries with either seaweed or salt and pepper.
Throughout our trip, we met a lot of Filipinos. Their stories were really interesting and meeting them makes you proud of being a Filipino. It also helps that I really look like a Filipino (Carol was often mistaken as a Chinese), that fellow Filipinos reply to me in Tagalog. Filipinos in Hong Kong and Macau were very helpful, they find it a pleasure to help other Filipinos who were lost or in need of assistance. Here are some of our/their stories.
1. We were searching for the St. Joseph's Church, it is near the Peak Terminal and the St. John's Cathedral w/c is an Anglican Church. We were already five minutes late for the mass and we were lost. We asked two Filipinas who walked past us and they replied, "Magsisimba din ba kayo? Dun kami papunta." Thank God. About 90% of churchgoers in that church are Filipinos, the priest and the choir are also Filipinos. One thing about Filipinos, we never lose our faith.
2. Our hotel booking did not include breakfast. When we saw that our hotel serves breakfast for only HK$22 (around PhP150), I thought it was a bargain since a budgeted HK$50 for every meal. At the dining room, we were greeted by a group of Filipino tourist. They informed us that whatever we see on the buffet table was already everything. The picture was really deceiving. Pinoy Guy 1 told us that they have been eating the same food for the past three days. The food is really disappointing. They serve spaghetti with pork and beans (straight from the can) and bread straight from packaging.
Pinoy Guy 1 said that since they are leaving early the following morning and breakfast is not served until 8 am, they are giving us their breakfast stubs. We hesitated a bit (Pinoy nga naman, kunyari sa una nahihiya, tatangi), but we eventually took it (mas nakakahiya na tanggihan). Sayang nga naman ung breakfast (SAYANG: the great Filipino word without a direct English counterpart). To our surprise one more, breakfasts on a Sunday are different... there are more and better choices (but still served straight from the can, bottle or whatever packaging they come with). It is twice more expensive if you pay for it but we got for free, thank God once more. Another thing about Filipinos, we are generous givers and we always value scarce resources (Sinusulit ang mga libreng bagay).
3. Jollibee Hong Kong is more than just a Filipino restaurant. It is a comfort zone for Pinoys, a networking and socializing area, a place to find job openings or vacant bed spaces, a place for Filipinos to feel at home right at the heart of Hong Kong. Right next to Jollibee HK is Little Quiapo, next to it is a remittance center were we found the best exchange rate (US$1 = HK$7.65), near that is Banco de Oro, and at the street next to all of it is the place where Balikbayan boxes to and from the Philippines are delivered/ p
icked-up. Most of the crew in Jollibee HK are Pinoys, including the aforementioned cashier, the store manager and the janitress who were scolding other Pinays for spilling Pepsi (they serve Pepsi instead of Coke). Later, I found her talking to some Pinays about her family in the Philippines. The place was full and it was very difficult to find and reserve seats... it was, of course a Sunday (day-off).
Right across us were two Pinays talking about their families they left behind. One of them was saying how her sister attended all her son's important occasions (graduation, birthdays, swearing in as a registered nurse). She wished that she could go home more often and so on and so forth. It was a bit surprising to find out that it was their first meeting and they started talking after one agreed to save their seats while the other orders food for both of them. Instant bonding. I do not know how to describe this Filipino trait.
4. When we were at The Venetian - Macau, Carol called my attention that the song playing in Duty Free Americas is in Tagalog. We went in and was greeted by a Filipino sales clerk. It was a Jimmy Bondoc song and he said it was his cellphone used as an MP3 player for the store's music. He told us that while Venetian Casino is still making money, other affiliated casinos are already losing money. He also said that a lot of Filipinos who were employed by casinos and hotels were already sent home. He said he is lucky that he is still there but his contract is up for renewal within the next few months and he is really unsure about the future. But still, he is upbeat that everything will be alright, he said while laughing a bit. He already learned how to speak some Chinese (probably Cantonese), which will make him slightly recession proof (he is now trilingual). Several Filipino traits all the same time...
5. Finally, we were going around Macau's city center, visiting World Heritage sites. We were approached by two Filipinas, they were looking for "Putol na Simbahan." You can surf the internet all day, read all the travel guides and maps, ask all the tourist information people and you will not find Putol na Simbahan in Macau. What they have is the Ruins of St. Paul's Cathedral. Only the facade of the church was left making it 'putol'. And hence, I
marvel at the creativity of Filipinos.Of course, we met so many Filipinos along the way. In Macau, we met a Filipina, we'll call her Cinderella, she's been to Macau for only three months, she was lost after boarding the wrong bus, she stayed out too late and must get back to her place before midnight but before that she must buy something from the red market. You'll easily hear Tagalog spoken in MTRs and other tourist areas, on Sundays you'll here other Filipino dialects.
And just like Adobo in Hong Kong, Filipinos will always find their way, cope and survive . with a mix of sour, sweet, salty and spicy experiences along the way.
Thursday, February 19, 2009
When untouchables clash with the corrupt and the inept
"F*ck you, B*tch!" This is allegedly what one of the agents of Philippine Drug Enforcement Agency (PDEA) said while beating up Richard Brodett, one of the Alabang Boys.
This is in the latest episode of the exciting saga: The Alabang Boys. The story involves rich kids (who initially denied that they are really rich) who were allegedly caught in an alleged buy-bust operation for allegedly selling ecstasy. I want to complete the background story but it will all be filled with allegedly given the clashing statements of the parties involved.
Who are involved:
Alabang Boys (Brodett with Jorge Joseph and Joseph Tecson)
Relatives of Alabang Boys
Lawyers of Alabang Boys
Government Prosecutors
Department of Justice Secretary
PDEA Agents
PDEA Administration
House of Representatives
The Anti-Drug Czar aka the President of the Philippines
extras (IBP, Anti-Money laundering Council, Special Government Panel, etc)
What makes the story interesting o frustrating (depending upon your perspective) is that it highlights how we should NOT treat the government as one entity. The story involves all branches of the government (Judicial, Executive and Legislative). Within the executive, there is a clash between the PDEA, the prosecutors and Dept. of Justice Secretary.
The story also has all the elements of a telenovela: drugs, youth, family conflict, surprise witnesses, unusual twists, a lot of sub plots (the opening of bank accounts for money laundering, the disbarment of the Alabang Boys lawyers for drafting a release order using official DOJ stationary), police brutality, inept government officials, and a lot more.
It has comedy (is 3M a pizza, 3 manok or 3 million pesos), drama (Brodett vs Brodett), action (buy bust operation leads to a car chase) and a love story (none so far, but I am sure it will come up).
This early, I am sure that all the parties are at fault. Everybody are doing what they thought they should be doing and thought that there was nothing wrong with what they were doing. The rich thinking that they are untouchables. The prosecutors that dismiss cases when the price is right. The PDEA who needs big fishes to push the career of a former senator hoping for a comeback. And then suddenly by some twist of fate, their careers and lives crashed, highlighting how big in a mess, the Philippines is.
With all the lies and the cover ups, we now hear stupid and incredulous comments from all the people involved. Here is one of the examples:
This is in the latest episode of the exciting saga: The Alabang Boys. The story involves rich kids (who initially denied that they are really rich) who were allegedly caught in an alleged buy-bust operation for allegedly selling ecstasy. I want to complete the background story but it will all be filled with allegedly given the clashing statements of the parties involved.
Who are involved:
Alabang Boys (Brodett with Jorge Joseph and Joseph Tecson)
Relatives of Alabang Boys
Lawyers of Alabang Boys
Government Prosecutors
Department of Justice Secretary
PDEA Agents
PDEA Administration
House of Representatives
The Anti-Drug Czar aka the President of the Philippines
extras (IBP, Anti-Money laundering Council, Special Government Panel, etc)
What makes the story interesting o frustrating (depending upon your perspective) is that it highlights how we should NOT treat the government as one entity. The story involves all branches of the government (Judicial, Executive and Legislative). Within the executive, there is a clash between the PDEA, the prosecutors and Dept. of Justice Secretary.
The story also has all the elements of a telenovela: drugs, youth, family conflict, surprise witnesses, unusual twists, a lot of sub plots (the opening of bank accounts for money laundering, the disbarment of the Alabang Boys lawyers for drafting a release order using official DOJ stationary), police brutality, inept government officials, and a lot more.
It has comedy (is 3M a pizza, 3 manok or 3 million pesos), drama (Brodett vs Brodett), action (buy bust operation leads to a car chase) and a love story (none so far, but I am sure it will come up).
This early, I am sure that all the parties are at fault. Everybody are doing what they thought they should be doing and thought that there was nothing wrong with what they were doing. The rich thinking that they are untouchables. The prosecutors that dismiss cases when the price is right. The PDEA who needs big fishes to push the career of a former senator hoping for a comeback. And then suddenly by some twist of fate, their careers and lives crashed, highlighting how big in a mess, the Philippines is.
With all the lies and the cover ups, we now hear stupid and incredulous comments from all the people involved. Here is one of the examples:
“At 25 years old, to be a supplier? It’s hard to believe they’re hardened criminals. It’s impossible for their age,” said Jacqueline Verano, one of the lawyers of the Alabang Boys.
“Is it possible that at these ages, they would already have a network of buyers and be able to influence the drug market? Highly unlikely,” Verano said in an e-mail.
Note: There are young entrepreneurs who can develop a wide network for a successful business. If they can use their skills for productive endeavours, sadly, they can also use it to sell drugs.
My favorite is the quote above. Brodett mentioned that during his testimony at the House of Representatives. After listening to Christina Bale and ex-Illinois Governmbor Rod Blagojevich, I am now familiar on how this curse words are used. But it is a bit far fetched that our own PDEA agents will be using the same curse words.
In his testimony, Brodett said that other curse words were used such as P*t*ng In* Mo!, G*go, and T*rantado. But F*ck You, B*tch... he must be high that time!
Thursday, February 12, 2009
Slumdog Piracy
Tuesday, February 3, 2009
What a Slumdog Millionaire can buy?
A one bed-room condo unit!
If Jamal Malik, the lead protagonist in "Slumdog Millionaire" will use all the 20 million rupee grand prize to buy a flat in Mumbai, then he can only buy around 45 square meters, good enough for a one-bed room condominium unit.
Residential apartment prices in Mumbai range from INR400,000 to INR630,000 per sq. m. Using today's exchange range, that is about PhP386,222 - PhP608,300 or US$8,170 - US$12,870. That is very expensive. Imagine this, converted to peso Jamal's prize is around 19.3 million Philippine pesos, with that money you can definitely afford a 3BR luxury unit in Rockwell, Makati or Fort Bonifacio.
Mumbai's formal residential market is so expensive, it is among the top ten most expensive real estate markets in the world. The other cities in the top 10 are glitzy, economic and financial centers such as Monaco, Moscow, London, Tokyo, Hong Kong, New York, London, Paris, Singapore and Rome.
Mumbai is probably the only country in the world where your multi-million dollar condominium is right next a slum area. Dharavi, the slum in 'Slumdog' where Jamil grew and lives, is home to more than one million people. It is one of the biggest urban slums in the world. The ridiculously expensive properties in Mumbai are due to several factors including archaic laws, inefficient land registration systems, lack of planning, lack of infrastructure, bureaucratic inefficiency and corruption, overpopulation and very rapid urbanization.
Slumdog Millionaire portrays India and Mumbai at a very bad light. Aside from showing elements of extreme poverty and inequality, it also shows hero worship of celebrities, child labor, child abuse, child exploitation, religious conflict, petty crime, grand crime, gangsterism, beggar syndicates, police brutality, torture, human rights abuse, corruption, prostitution, and discrimination based on work (and caste). It shows the triumph of the human spirit (and love) over these challenges. (There is also Bollywood dancing during credits.)
This movie will also make you think again before visiting India... Incredible India as their tourism campaign claims. It shows tourists victimized, robbed and swindled. People visiting Taj Mahal may likely think twice before leaving their shoes or slippers outside the temple.
Anyway, the move is great and is highly recommended. It is a documentary masquerading as a love story. It also explains why game shows are very popular in the Philippines and other developing countries.
Most Filipinos can probably relate to it. I can actually imagine a Filipino version of it... how about... Ang Haciendero ng Payatas.
If Jamal Malik, the lead protagonist in "Slumdog Millionaire" will use all the 20 million rupee grand prize to buy a flat in Mumbai, then he can only buy around 45 square meters, good enough for a one-bed room condominium unit.
Residential apartment prices in Mumbai range from INR400,000 to INR630,000 per sq. m. Using today's exchange range, that is about PhP386,222 - PhP608,300 or US$8,170 - US$12,870. That is very expensive. Imagine this, converted to peso Jamal's prize is around 19.3 million Philippine pesos, with that money you can definitely afford a 3BR luxury unit in Rockwell, Makati or Fort Bonifacio.
Mumbai's formal residential market is so expensive, it is among the top ten most expensive real estate markets in the world. The other cities in the top 10 are glitzy, economic and financial centers such as Monaco, Moscow, London, Tokyo, Hong Kong, New York, London, Paris, Singapore and Rome.
Mumbai is probably the only country in the world where your multi-million dollar condominium is right next a slum area. Dharavi, the slum in 'Slumdog' where Jamil grew and lives, is home to more than one million people. It is one of the biggest urban slums in the world. The ridiculously expensive properties in Mumbai are due to several factors including archaic laws, inefficient land registration systems, lack of planning, lack of infrastructure, bureaucratic inefficiency and corruption, overpopulation and very rapid urbanization.
Slumdog Millionaire portrays India and Mumbai at a very bad light. Aside from showing elements of extreme poverty and inequality, it also shows hero worship of celebrities, child labor, child abuse, child exploitation, religious conflict, petty crime, grand crime, gangsterism, beggar syndicates, police brutality, torture, human rights abuse, corruption, prostitution, and discrimination based on work (and caste). It shows the triumph of the human spirit (and love) over these challenges. (There is also Bollywood dancing during credits.)
This movie will also make you think again before visiting India... Incredible India as their tourism campaign claims. It shows tourists victimized, robbed and swindled. People visiting Taj Mahal may likely think twice before leaving their shoes or slippers outside the temple.
Anyway, the move is great and is highly recommended. It is a documentary masquerading as a love story. It also explains why game shows are very popular in the Philippines and other developing countries.
Most Filipinos can probably relate to it. I can actually imagine a Filipino version of it... how about... Ang Haciendero ng Payatas.
Thursday, January 29, 2009
Bank fraud- RP style
I am following closely developments regarding the Legacy Group and the financial fraud that they supposedly committed. While the Legacy case has numerous similarities to the Madoff (pronounced as Made off) Scheme in the US, there are striking differences.
The fraud basically begins with the promise of huge returns for deposits and investments. Both Legacy and Madoff ask their clients to trust them with their money, explain somehow that they are good financial investors and they can produce substantial returns.
In the case of the Legacy Group, they provided "double your money in 5 year scheme with free insurance." An interest rate of about 20% per year.This a substantial return given the microscopic 0.8% interest rate on regular ATM savings accounts (less 20% withholding tax). The amount of return should really be a cause of concern for potential depositors and investors. Government concessionaires of public utilities such as water, electricity and toll ways are only allowed a net return of around 8%.
The only other investment I know that produces 20% return are the 5-6 schemes of loan sharks (locally known as Bumbay). And people know that the loans made by loan sharks are very risky: no collateral, no credit investigations done, no receipts.
In the case of Bernie Madoff, he did not really promise huge returns but showed consistent annual returns of around 10%. Which is a substantial amount given the relatively low level of interest rates in the mid-2000s, at around 4% to 5%.
How were they able to produce huge returns? Through a ponzi or pyramid scheme! Returns on the investment of person 1 are paid by the investment of person 2 and 3. Returns on the investment of person 2 are paid with money from persons 4 and 5, and so on and so forth.
With huge returns, existing investors encourage their friends, relatives and office mates to invest also. As the number of new investors increase, the amount the perpetrator can stash away increases. It also benefits that fraud master if existing investors re-invest their money.The pyramid's base continue to grow until there are no more new investors or new money to invest. And then, the pyramid collapses.
In the case of Albania (a small country in Europe), the collapse of a nationwide Ponzi scheme led to the collapse of the financial system and the government. Riots ensued with more than 2,000 people killed. Similar riots led to several deaths due to the collapse of ponzi schemes in Latin American countries.
In the case of Legacy and Maddoff, the government halted their operations before the pyramid collapsed. Some people who were able to pull-out their money early enough actually made profit. Now, here are the differences. In the case of Madoff, people invested their money. As an investment, they knew that they can either gain or lose money. Because Madoff committed fraud, they can get some of their money once Madoff's assets are liquidated. Fraud was committed against the investors. Given the opportunity, these investors (which included charitable institutions and schools) would probably lynch Madoff to death.
In the case of the Legacy Group, they took in the money as deposits, not investments. As deposit, it is protected by the Philippine Deposit Insurance Corp. (PDIC). They made sure that the huge bulk of the deposits were under PhP250,000, the maximum insurance payment the PDIC can provide. Hence, in case the Legacy banks collapse, it is actually the PDIC (and the government) which loses money (and some people that deposited more than 250,000). Fraud was committed against the government. Some depositors were actually mad at the government for taking away their "high return-investments."
Perpetrators of ponzi schemes are intelligent people, to bad that they use their talents for fraud. Behind the Legacy Group is Celso Angeles, Jr., a graduate of Ateneo and AIM, the premier business schools in the Philippines. He worked in the US for almost 10 years where he probably mastered his craft. Bernie Madoff, on the other hand, was a former chairman of NASDAQ, one of US major stock exchanges. Both men probably used their excellent pedigrees to gain trust from potential investors.
Anyway, the Legacy Group's attempt was not the first time that the government was duped using the banking system. Once upon a time, there was a businessman who owned a small bank and a rapidly growing real estate company. To be able to sell houses in his subdivisions built on the hillsides of Rizal, he provided housing loans through his bank. In effect, he transferred money from depositors to his real estate company using his bank.
Eventually, home buyers were not able to pay their loans and the bank went bankrupt, but the business did not mourn. He already earned a lot from it. Most of the depositors were compensated by the PDIC. No cases were filed, no investigations were done. He is now a successful politician and will probably run in 2010.
That is bank fraud- RP Style.
The fraud basically begins with the promise of huge returns for deposits and investments. Both Legacy and Madoff ask their clients to trust them with their money, explain somehow that they are good financial investors and they can produce substantial returns.
In the case of the Legacy Group, they provided "double your money in 5 year scheme with free insurance." An interest rate of about 20% per year.This a substantial return given the microscopic 0.8% interest rate on regular ATM savings accounts (less 20% withholding tax). The amount of return should really be a cause of concern for potential depositors and investors. Government concessionaires of public utilities such as water, electricity and toll ways are only allowed a net return of around 8%.
The only other investment I know that produces 20% return are the 5-6 schemes of loan sharks (locally known as Bumbay). And people know that the loans made by loan sharks are very risky: no collateral, no credit investigations done, no receipts.
In the case of Bernie Madoff, he did not really promise huge returns but showed consistent annual returns of around 10%. Which is a substantial amount given the relatively low level of interest rates in the mid-2000s, at around 4% to 5%.
How were they able to produce huge returns? Through a ponzi or pyramid scheme! Returns on the investment of person 1 are paid by the investment of person 2 and 3. Returns on the investment of person 2 are paid with money from persons 4 and 5, and so on and so forth.
With huge returns, existing investors encourage their friends, relatives and office mates to invest also. As the number of new investors increase, the amount the perpetrator can stash away increases. It also benefits that fraud master if existing investors re-invest their money.The pyramid's base continue to grow until there are no more new investors or new money to invest. And then, the pyramid collapses.
In the case of Albania (a small country in Europe), the collapse of a nationwide Ponzi scheme led to the collapse of the financial system and the government. Riots ensued with more than 2,000 people killed. Similar riots led to several deaths due to the collapse of ponzi schemes in Latin American countries.
In the case of Legacy and Maddoff, the government halted their operations before the pyramid collapsed. Some people who were able to pull-out their money early enough actually made profit. Now, here are the differences. In the case of Madoff, people invested their money. As an investment, they knew that they can either gain or lose money. Because Madoff committed fraud, they can get some of their money once Madoff's assets are liquidated. Fraud was committed against the investors. Given the opportunity, these investors (which included charitable institutions and schools) would probably lynch Madoff to death.
In the case of the Legacy Group, they took in the money as deposits, not investments. As deposit, it is protected by the Philippine Deposit Insurance Corp. (PDIC). They made sure that the huge bulk of the deposits were under PhP250,000, the maximum insurance payment the PDIC can provide. Hence, in case the Legacy banks collapse, it is actually the PDIC (and the government) which loses money (and some people that deposited more than 250,000). Fraud was committed against the government. Some depositors were actually mad at the government for taking away their "high return-investments."
Perpetrators of ponzi schemes are intelligent people, to bad that they use their talents for fraud. Behind the Legacy Group is Celso Angeles, Jr., a graduate of Ateneo and AIM, the premier business schools in the Philippines. He worked in the US for almost 10 years where he probably mastered his craft. Bernie Madoff, on the other hand, was a former chairman of NASDAQ, one of US major stock exchanges. Both men probably used their excellent pedigrees to gain trust from potential investors.
Anyway, the Legacy Group's attempt was not the first time that the government was duped using the banking system. Once upon a time, there was a businessman who owned a small bank and a rapidly growing real estate company. To be able to sell houses in his subdivisions built on the hillsides of Rizal, he provided housing loans through his bank. In effect, he transferred money from depositors to his real estate company using his bank.
Eventually, home buyers were not able to pay their loans and the bank went bankrupt, but the business did not mourn. He already earned a lot from it. Most of the depositors were compensated by the PDIC. No cases were filed, no investigations were done. He is now a successful politician and will probably run in 2010.
That is bank fraud- RP Style.
Thursday, January 22, 2009
Presidential Legacy
After George W. Bush became the 43rd US President in 2001, he said that his father's presidency (George H.W. Bush, the 41st President) failed, mainly because daddy-Bush was not reelected in 1992.
To win and re-win the presidency, Bush employed the services of Karl Rove, the engineer and mastermind behind the most vicious and dirtiest campaigns in modern US history. In 2001, Rove launched an attack on John McCain, Bush's strongest contender for nomination of the Republican Party. While campaigning for reelection against John Kerry in 2004, they discredited Kerry's service record during the Vietnam War including the multiple medals he received.
At the end of Baby-Bush's presidency, he is perceived as one of the most unpopular presidents ever. But baby-Bush can still be considered as an achiever compared to his dad. Daddy-Bush launched the Iraq War, Baby-Bush launched two wars, in Iraq and Afghanistan. Daddy-Bush left the economy weak, Baby-Bush wrecked the economy into recession. Daddy-Bush failed to capture Saddam Hussein, Baby-Bush captured Saddam Hussein but failed to get Osama bin Laden. Other than that, Baby-Bush can boast of other legacies including his failures regarding Katrina, Guantanamo, sub-prime mortgages, financial market collapse, debt and deficit, and the list continues (no comparison for daddy-Bush).
With all the wrong intentions to become the president, baby-Bush's legacy is still debatable, whether he is "the worst president ever" or just "one of the worst" or "the worst so far".
Back home, with a more than a year left in the GMA administration, I wonder what her legacy would be. On the negative side, I think GMA is really not worse compared to past presidents. GMA failed in battling poverty, unemployment, homelessness, corruption, cronyism, nepotism and others, just like her predecessors. We still have a failed agrarian reform project, no centralized land registration bureau, cumbersome and inadequate social security programs, peace in Mindanao and the countryside is still elusive, just like when Aguinaldo proclaimed independence in 1898.
Nevertheless, Marcos definitely has the worst record in terms of corruption, human rights and temper. But it can be mainly due to the length of their presidencies. When GMA steps down in 2010, she has been president for 9 years, the second longest in Philippine history after Marcos' 21 years in power.
On the positive side, I think the following are GMA's greatest legacies (in no particular order):
1. E-VAT (Expanded Value-Added Tax Law raised the rate from 10% to 12% and widened its scope)
Th E-VAT helped diffuse the impending fiscal crisis the Philippines chronically faces. VAT is relatively easy to compute and collect. As a consumption tax, it follows the principle of taxing people based on what they take out of the economy instead on their contributions to the economy, i.e., VAT discourages consumption while income tax discourages work.
One of the greatest advantages of the E-VAT is its imposition on oil, a highly unpopular decision avoided by Aquino, Ramos and Estrada. VAT on oil is good for several reasons:
i. Richer people (private vehicle owners) pay more compared to poorer people (those who take public transport).
ii. It serves as a pollution tax, thus discourages the use of gas-guzzling SUVs and encourages walking, biking and the use of mass transport systems.
iii. It is the only way that the highly informal transportation industry is taxed (most public utility vehicle operators, drivers and owners don't pay income tax... but I still cannot use this argument when talking to a tip-asking-taxi-driver).
With the unpopular E-VAT already in place, the next president should personally thank GMA for it. Let us just hope that E-VAT will not be scrapped due to populist tendencies of politicians.
2. Holiday economics (the practice of moving national holidays to a Monday or Friday)
As a promdi, the holiday economics allowed me to spend more time with my family in Bulacan. It also helped me and my friends plan out-of-town trips, (we have visited numerous places and islands around the country). With tourism, income and wealth is distributed more equitably around the country. With tourism interlinked with numerous industries such as land, sea and air transport, food, hospitality and local handicraft, the multiplier effect is much much bigger. Aside from providing numerous jobs, tourism allows people from different places to interact and learn from each other.
3. RORO (Roll-in Roll-out) Facilities
As an archipelago with 7,107 islands (is the Kalayaan Group of Islands included in this count?), the transport of goods and services within the country is hampered by high cost and the lack of infrastructure. The RORO System lowers cost, minimizes spoilage of agricultural products, promotes tourism, increases productivity and brings people together. I really wonder why this project was not launched earlier by other administrations.
4. Bridges, Airports and Public Infrastructure
Going around the country, we saw the numerous infrastructure programs launched by this administration. Although these projects are typically overpriced due to multi-billion dollar worth of kickbacks, the final output is still very useful.
Aside from being an archipelago, each island is dotted with several rivers, lakes, mountains and hills, making transportation difficult. It is sometimes surprising how much improvement a new road can bring to far flung town. Bridges that connect communities to major markets, can lead to substantial increase in income for farmers and craftsmen. These were complimented with new and expanded expressway systems and airports.
I most excited with the new mass rail transit systems (North Rail, South Rail and new lines of MRT), that I hope can be finished much sooner.
5. Bayani Fernando's Metro Manila
Bayani Fernando at the MMDA is the longest serving member of GMA cabinet after his appointment in 2002. Although his tactics are controversial, his methods are unpopular and his decisions and gut instinct questionable, he has brought so much order into Metro Manila's chaotic nature.
Most of his projects were initially greeted with skepticism, protests and sometimes outright rejection. However, he pushes through with pure political will. Way back in college (early-2000s), I can distinctly remember the we were often stuck in traffic for 30 minutes or more in-front of Muñoz market in Quezon City. That is no longer the case, thanks to the much derided U-turn slots.
I don't agree with all of Bayani's projects, some are downright wasteful while some are obviously kickback-friendly. Bayani might be corrupt or Machiavellian, but he has done so much for Metro Manila that I hope he can be MMDA chairman forever. And I salute GMA for not axing the controversial, unpopular but very effective MMDA Chairman.
Now, if only he can remove those kotong traffic enforcers and implement a bus-scheme similar to those in Hong Kong and Singapore...
To win and re-win the presidency, Bush employed the services of Karl Rove, the engineer and mastermind behind the most vicious and dirtiest campaigns in modern US history. In 2001, Rove launched an attack on John McCain, Bush's strongest contender for nomination of the Republican Party. While campaigning for reelection against John Kerry in 2004, they discredited Kerry's service record during the Vietnam War including the multiple medals he received.
At the end of Baby-Bush's presidency, he is perceived as one of the most unpopular presidents ever. But baby-Bush can still be considered as an achiever compared to his dad. Daddy-Bush launched the Iraq War, Baby-Bush launched two wars, in Iraq and Afghanistan. Daddy-Bush left the economy weak, Baby-Bush wrecked the economy into recession. Daddy-Bush failed to capture Saddam Hussein, Baby-Bush captured Saddam Hussein but failed to get Osama bin Laden. Other than that, Baby-Bush can boast of other legacies including his failures regarding Katrina, Guantanamo, sub-prime mortgages, financial market collapse, debt and deficit, and the list continues (no comparison for daddy-Bush).
With all the wrong intentions to become the president, baby-Bush's legacy is still debatable, whether he is "the worst president ever" or just "one of the worst" or "the worst so far".
Back home, with a more than a year left in the GMA administration, I wonder what her legacy would be. On the negative side, I think GMA is really not worse compared to past presidents. GMA failed in battling poverty, unemployment, homelessness, corruption, cronyism, nepotism and others, just like her predecessors. We still have a failed agrarian reform project, no centralized land registration bureau, cumbersome and inadequate social security programs, peace in Mindanao and the countryside is still elusive, just like when Aguinaldo proclaimed independence in 1898.
Nevertheless, Marcos definitely has the worst record in terms of corruption, human rights and temper. But it can be mainly due to the length of their presidencies. When GMA steps down in 2010, she has been president for 9 years, the second longest in Philippine history after Marcos' 21 years in power.
On the positive side, I think the following are GMA's greatest legacies (in no particular order):
1. E-VAT (Expanded Value-Added Tax Law raised the rate from 10% to 12% and widened its scope)
Th E-VAT helped diffuse the impending fiscal crisis the Philippines chronically faces. VAT is relatively easy to compute and collect. As a consumption tax, it follows the principle of taxing people based on what they take out of the economy instead on their contributions to the economy, i.e., VAT discourages consumption while income tax discourages work.
One of the greatest advantages of the E-VAT is its imposition on oil, a highly unpopular decision avoided by Aquino, Ramos and Estrada. VAT on oil is good for several reasons:
i. Richer people (private vehicle owners) pay more compared to poorer people (those who take public transport).
ii. It serves as a pollution tax, thus discourages the use of gas-guzzling SUVs and encourages walking, biking and the use of mass transport systems.
iii. It is the only way that the highly informal transportation industry is taxed (most public utility vehicle operators, drivers and owners don't pay income tax... but I still cannot use this argument when talking to a tip-asking-taxi-driver).
With the unpopular E-VAT already in place, the next president should personally thank GMA for it. Let us just hope that E-VAT will not be scrapped due to populist tendencies of politicians.
2. Holiday economics (the practice of moving national holidays to a Monday or Friday)
As a promdi, the holiday economics allowed me to spend more time with my family in Bulacan. It also helped me and my friends plan out-of-town trips, (we have visited numerous places and islands around the country). With tourism, income and wealth is distributed more equitably around the country. With tourism interlinked with numerous industries such as land, sea and air transport, food, hospitality and local handicraft, the multiplier effect is much much bigger. Aside from providing numerous jobs, tourism allows people from different places to interact and learn from each other.
3. RORO (Roll-in Roll-out) Facilities
As an archipelago with 7,107 islands (is the Kalayaan Group of Islands included in this count?), the transport of goods and services within the country is hampered by high cost and the lack of infrastructure. The RORO System lowers cost, minimizes spoilage of agricultural products, promotes tourism, increases productivity and brings people together. I really wonder why this project was not launched earlier by other administrations.
4. Bridges, Airports and Public Infrastructure
Going around the country, we saw the numerous infrastructure programs launched by this administration. Although these projects are typically overpriced due to multi-billion dollar worth of kickbacks, the final output is still very useful.
Aside from being an archipelago, each island is dotted with several rivers, lakes, mountains and hills, making transportation difficult. It is sometimes surprising how much improvement a new road can bring to far flung town. Bridges that connect communities to major markets, can lead to substantial increase in income for farmers and craftsmen. These were complimented with new and expanded expressway systems and airports.
I most excited with the new mass rail transit systems (North Rail, South Rail and new lines of MRT), that I hope can be finished much sooner.
5. Bayani Fernando's Metro Manila
Bayani Fernando at the MMDA is the longest serving member of GMA cabinet after his appointment in 2002. Although his tactics are controversial, his methods are unpopular and his decisions and gut instinct questionable, he has brought so much order into Metro Manila's chaotic nature.
Most of his projects were initially greeted with skepticism, protests and sometimes outright rejection. However, he pushes through with pure political will. Way back in college (early-2000s), I can distinctly remember the we were often stuck in traffic for 30 minutes or more in-front of Muñoz market in Quezon City. That is no longer the case, thanks to the much derided U-turn slots.
I don't agree with all of Bayani's projects, some are downright wasteful while some are obviously kickback-friendly. Bayani might be corrupt or Machiavellian, but he has done so much for Metro Manila that I hope he can be MMDA chairman forever. And I salute GMA for not axing the controversial, unpopular but very effective MMDA Chairman.
Now, if only he can remove those kotong traffic enforcers and implement a bus-scheme similar to those in Hong Kong and Singapore...
Thursday, January 15, 2009
Prophets of Doom and Economic Forecasts
A journalist once told me that I am her "Prophet of Doom." Apparently, some journalists call me if they wanted to paint a bleaker picture of the real estate market or as a counterweight to the often very rosy picture painted by real estate developers and companies.
Last year, I receive probably one call every week or two. As the global financial meltdown unfolded, journalists ask me what will happen to the local real estate market. I was also made to react on press releases by developers boasting that they remain resilient and optimistic despite the crisis.
Recently, calls from journalists are becoming more scarce. The last one I answered was a query on the proposed extension to the lapsed rent control law. Probably, it is no longer difficult to find doomsayers. It is now easier to find analysts, pundits and experts that forecasts that the country and real estate market will be in a tougher situation this year. It is probably time that I shelve my Prophet-of-Doom hat, even for just two or three years.
Predicting an economic crisis is not easy. Every now and then, people comment that nobody saw the crises coming; US housing market crisis, the subprime mortgage crisis, the financial meltdown and the global economic crisis. Not true. A lot of economists and experts have warned about it, including Nouriel Roubini (called Dr. Doom due to his pessimistic forecasts) and Nobel Laureates Joseph Stiglitz and Paul Krugman (also New York Times Columnist). The problem was that nobody listened or very few people listen or those who listened didn't or couldn't do enough.
Or people who were in the position to deal with the impending crisis did not, could not or does not want to listen. Probably, due to ideological or philosophical reasons. Much worse if they did not want to listen because they were benefiting from the financially rewarding but structurally unsustainable system.
It is also possible that those who are willing to listen, asked the wrong people, making them clueless when the crisis struck.
From the point of view of an individual (buyer, investor, or developer), I understand why it is also difficult to listen to economists, especially when they foretell economic disasters.
First, most economists find it difficult to talk to a laymen (or journalists... and most of the time you'll ned up misquoted). Well, Roubini is really difficult to follow but Krugman is a bit easy to comprehend. In the Philippines, we have former NEDA secretary-generals and economics professors Cielito Habito and Winnie Monsod as regular columnists at the Inquirer (although Mareng Winnie often writes about things other than economics). Occasionally, former NEDA chief Cayetano Paderanga and former Ben Diokno writes for the BusinessWorld. A segment in BW called IDEA Corkboard also does a good job.
But these are all in expensive broadsheets. How about the majority of people who listens to the radio or reads tabloids (if they read at all)? So far, there are very few mediums where regular folks can get sound economic and financial advise.
A second problem is with the way economists talk. Good economists are either modest or ambiguous. They never claim that things will certainly happen. They explain both sides of the argument and leave the decision to the individual, leaving the individual, most of the time, more confused.
Q: Will the housing market go up or down?
A: These are the factors that can push the market up, Blah, Blah, Blah. On the other hand, here are factors that can pull it down, blah, blah, blah.
Q: So, is it going up or down?
A: It depends... on the magnitude of the effect of each of the factors, the time frame, and whether you are at the side of the winner or the loser, blah, blah, blah.
Third, the time frame also poses significant problems. Some things will happen in the short run, another thing can happen in the long run. But how long is the long run? (Keynes said "in the long run, we are all dead"). Most economists can indicate the direction where the market is heading, but they are reluctant to say exactly how fast the wind is blowing and how long the wind will blow.
During my first few years working as a property researcher, I followed The Economist on their their coverage of the global house price boom. Every year since 2004, they predicted that the market will crash. And the market did crash, in 2007 for some countries like the US, Ireland and Estonia and in 2008 for UK, Russia, New Zealand and Singapore.
If you are an investor, you followed The Economist and pulled out your property investment (i.e. sold your house you bought for the sole purpose of selling it again) in 2004, then you would have missed the enormous property gains in 2005 and 2006. Seeing your neighbor who made tons of money back then, you might feel sorry for the opportunity you missed and blame The Economist and other economists.
But then, your neighbor got more audacious and decided to borrow more money and invest more in housing in 2007. Suddenly, the crash that The Economist warned will come has finally arrived. Your neighbor is now broke and was forced to sell all his belongings while you remain secure with your finances. You congratulate yourself for following your instincts.
So, should you follow an advice from an economists? It depends, whether you are risk averse or a risk taker. It depends on how much you are willing to risk and how much you are going to secure for your family. It is really very tricky and an economists job is never easy.
Most of the time, you feel nobody is listening to you and when people finally do listen to you because your gloomy prediction has finally happened, you are not allowed to say "I told you, so!"
"An economist is an expert who will know tomorrow why the things he predicted yesterday didn't happen today." - Laurence J. Peter
Last year, I receive probably one call every week or two. As the global financial meltdown unfolded, journalists ask me what will happen to the local real estate market. I was also made to react on press releases by developers boasting that they remain resilient and optimistic despite the crisis.
Recently, calls from journalists are becoming more scarce. The last one I answered was a query on the proposed extension to the lapsed rent control law. Probably, it is no longer difficult to find doomsayers. It is now easier to find analysts, pundits and experts that forecasts that the country and real estate market will be in a tougher situation this year. It is probably time that I shelve my Prophet-of-Doom hat, even for just two or three years.
Predicting an economic crisis is not easy. Every now and then, people comment that nobody saw the crises coming; US housing market crisis, the subprime mortgage crisis, the financial meltdown and the global economic crisis. Not true. A lot of economists and experts have warned about it, including Nouriel Roubini (called Dr. Doom due to his pessimistic forecasts) and Nobel Laureates Joseph Stiglitz and Paul Krugman (also New York Times Columnist). The problem was that nobody listened or very few people listen or those who listened didn't or couldn't do enough.
Or people who were in the position to deal with the impending crisis did not, could not or does not want to listen. Probably, due to ideological or philosophical reasons. Much worse if they did not want to listen because they were benefiting from the financially rewarding but structurally unsustainable system.
It is also possible that those who are willing to listen, asked the wrong people, making them clueless when the crisis struck.
From the point of view of an individual (buyer, investor, or developer), I understand why it is also difficult to listen to economists, especially when they foretell economic disasters.
First, most economists find it difficult to talk to a laymen (or journalists... and most of the time you'll ned up misquoted). Well, Roubini is really difficult to follow but Krugman is a bit easy to comprehend. In the Philippines, we have former NEDA secretary-generals and economics professors Cielito Habito and Winnie Monsod as regular columnists at the Inquirer (although Mareng Winnie often writes about things other than economics). Occasionally, former NEDA chief Cayetano Paderanga and former Ben Diokno writes for the BusinessWorld. A segment in BW called IDEA Corkboard also does a good job.
But these are all in expensive broadsheets. How about the majority of people who listens to the radio or reads tabloids (if they read at all)? So far, there are very few mediums where regular folks can get sound economic and financial advise.
A second problem is with the way economists talk. Good economists are either modest or ambiguous. They never claim that things will certainly happen. They explain both sides of the argument and leave the decision to the individual, leaving the individual, most of the time, more confused.
Q: Will the housing market go up or down?
A: These are the factors that can push the market up, Blah, Blah, Blah. On the other hand, here are factors that can pull it down, blah, blah, blah.
Q: So, is it going up or down?
A: It depends... on the magnitude of the effect of each of the factors, the time frame, and whether you are at the side of the winner or the loser, blah, blah, blah.
Third, the time frame also poses significant problems. Some things will happen in the short run, another thing can happen in the long run. But how long is the long run? (Keynes said "in the long run, we are all dead"). Most economists can indicate the direction where the market is heading, but they are reluctant to say exactly how fast the wind is blowing and how long the wind will blow.
During my first few years working as a property researcher, I followed The Economist on their their coverage of the global house price boom. Every year since 2004, they predicted that the market will crash. And the market did crash, in 2007 for some countries like the US, Ireland and Estonia and in 2008 for UK, Russia, New Zealand and Singapore.
If you are an investor, you followed The Economist and pulled out your property investment (i.e. sold your house you bought for the sole purpose of selling it again) in 2004, then you would have missed the enormous property gains in 2005 and 2006. Seeing your neighbor who made tons of money back then, you might feel sorry for the opportunity you missed and blame The Economist and other economists.
But then, your neighbor got more audacious and decided to borrow more money and invest more in housing in 2007. Suddenly, the crash that The Economist warned will come has finally arrived. Your neighbor is now broke and was forced to sell all his belongings while you remain secure with your finances. You congratulate yourself for following your instincts.
So, should you follow an advice from an economists? It depends, whether you are risk averse or a risk taker. It depends on how much you are willing to risk and how much you are going to secure for your family. It is really very tricky and an economists job is never easy.
Most of the time, you feel nobody is listening to you and when people finally do listen to you because your gloomy prediction has finally happened, you are not allowed to say "I told you, so!"
"An economist is an expert who will know tomorrow why the things he predicted yesterday didn't happen today." - Laurence J. Peter
Monday, January 5, 2009
Best and Worst Jobs in the US (Economist at 11)
In an article posted in the Wall Street Journal, these are the best and worst jobs in the US according to a recent study:
It is a very interesting list, but it seems highly unlikely to be applicable to the Philippines. Among the top 20 jobs, more than half are related to natural sciences. In the US where Science and Math education is valued greatly, NERDS RULE!!!
Most of the people on the top-20 list would likely be college professors and/or researchers. In the Philippines, most college professors and/or scientists are overworked and underpaid.
Economists at no. 11, how about that? Well, most economists are underpaid unless they are UP Econ professors with lucrative consultancy projects... but they are still overworked. But there are also not-underpaid economists in Financial Institutions, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas and multilateral institutions. Probably, economist will be ranked higher in the Philippines.
Accountant at number 10. Wow!?! Tell that to the people at SGV.
My friend who graduated with a Sociology degree who is now a Project Manager while holding an Urban Planning License will be interested to see Sociologist at number 8. Aside from Randy David, I actually do not know any other sociologists.
Philosopher at no. 12, I am not sure if there are living, working Philosophers outside colleges and universities. Or who would actually put Philosopher as a Job Title? Historians (7) in the Philippines are mostly government workers and/or teachers, most likely they are also underpaid and overworked.
Paralegal Assistant at 17...hmmm... I wonder what is the rank of lawyers (probably close to Politicians and Lobbyists). I can't imagine how being an assistant to a lawyer be a wonderful, rewarding job... and how being a parole officer be a better one (at 14).
With the 20 worst jobs, most of them are self-explanatory. I would not want to be a nuclear contamination technician. But its is interesting that most of the jobs that goes to our OFWs are included at the bottom twenty.
If you are wondering what a roustabout (193) is... I looked at the all-knowing wikipedia and here is the definition:
A roustabout is a labourer typically performing temporary, unskilled work. The term has traditionally been used to refer to traveling-circus workers or oil rig workers.
| The Best | The Worst |
| 1. Mathematician | 200. Lumberjack |
| 2. Actuary | 199. Dairy Farmer |
| 3. Statistician | 198. Taxi Driver |
| 4. Biologist | 197. Seaman |
| 5. Software Engineer | 196. EMT |
| 6. Computer Systems Analyst | 195. Garbage Collector |
| 7. Historian | 194. Welder |
| 8. Sociologist | 193. Roustabout |
| 9. Industrial Designer | 192. Ironworker |
| 10. Accountant | 191. Construction Worker |
| 11. ECONOMIST | 190. Mail Carrier |
| 12. Philosopher | 189. Sheet Metal Worker |
| 13. Physicist | 188. Auto Mechanic |
| 14. Parole Officer | 187. Butcher |
| 15. Meteorologist | 186. Nuclear Decontamination Tech |
| 16. Medical Laboratory Technician | 185. Nurse (LN) |
| 17. Paralegal Assistant | 184.Painter |
| 18. Computer Programmer | 183. Child Care Worker |
| 19. Motion Picture Editor | 182. Firefighter |
| 20. Astronomer | 181. Brick Layer |
It is a very interesting list, but it seems highly unlikely to be applicable to the Philippines. Among the top 20 jobs, more than half are related to natural sciences. In the US where Science and Math education is valued greatly, NERDS RULE!!!
Most of the people on the top-20 list would likely be college professors and/or researchers. In the Philippines, most college professors and/or scientists are overworked and underpaid.
Economists at no. 11, how about that? Well, most economists are underpaid unless they are UP Econ professors with lucrative consultancy projects... but they are still overworked. But there are also not-underpaid economists in Financial Institutions, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas and multilateral institutions. Probably, economist will be ranked higher in the Philippines.
Accountant at number 10. Wow!?! Tell that to the people at SGV.
My friend who graduated with a Sociology degree who is now a Project Manager while holding an Urban Planning License will be interested to see Sociologist at number 8. Aside from Randy David, I actually do not know any other sociologists.
Philosopher at no. 12, I am not sure if there are living, working Philosophers outside colleges and universities. Or who would actually put Philosopher as a Job Title? Historians (7) in the Philippines are mostly government workers and/or teachers, most likely they are also underpaid and overworked.
Paralegal Assistant at 17...hmmm... I wonder what is the rank of lawyers (probably close to Politicians and Lobbyists). I can't imagine how being an assistant to a lawyer be a wonderful, rewarding job... and how being a parole officer be a better one (at 14).
With the 20 worst jobs, most of them are self-explanatory. I would not want to be a nuclear contamination technician. But its is interesting that most of the jobs that goes to our OFWs are included at the bottom twenty.
If you are wondering what a roustabout (193) is... I looked at the all-knowing wikipedia and here is the definition:
A roustabout is a labourer typically performing temporary, unskilled work. The term has traditionally been used to refer to traveling-circus workers or oil rig workers.
Driving in the Philippines
I have spent the holiday season driving...
From QC to Makati.
From Baliuag (Bulacan) to the Fort (Taguig) and back.
From the Fort to QC.
From QC to Makati, to Better Living (Parañaque), to Cabuyao (Laguna), to Laiya, San Juan, Batangas then back to QC.
From QC to the Fort, then to Baliuag and Cabanatuan City, Nueva Ecija.
From QC to Cabuyao and back.
I passed through the SkyWay, the South Luzon Expressway, the Southern Tagalog Arterial Road (STAR) Tollway, and the North Luzon Express Way (I haven't been to the new Subic-Clark-Tarlac expressway).
During this driving mania, I have driven three types of vehicles, a Toyota Innova, a Honda Civic and a converted Toyota Hi-Ace (with the wiper and light switches reversed). The first two were manual, the third was automatic. It can be very confusing shifting from manual to automatic.
Driving in the Philippines is no easy feat. I have met a lot of people (foreigners and balikbayans) who are willing and able to drive abroad but not in the Philippines. Actually driving in the Philippines makes Grand Theft Auto boring. In a video game, you can always save and restart your game. You can get cheat codes and practice your maneuver.
In actual driving, game over is really game over. The risks are all too real, a bump or a scratch on a borrowed car is not easy to forgive, a confiscated license (unless you are willing to pay bribe money) is difficult to retrieve, or an accident leading to a loss of limbs or life is never an option.
One thing for sure, driving in the Philippines is never a dull moment. You have to watch out for potholes, swerving buses that move as if they are little motorcycles, motorcycles that ride a family (dad and mom with children at the front and back) also swerving as if they are buses, jeeps that suddenly stops to drop off or pick up passengers also swerving to overtake another jeep, and tricycles that tries to match the jeepneys ability to swerve. Drivers must be able to calculate and adjust (can I overtake a trike- bus- trike combo? how about a tractor- bus- trike- bus combo?). The vehicle must be able to speed up and slow down in a moment. The driver must also be able to battle lack of sleep, stress, fatigue and pesky backseat drivers (It is always easier to drive when you are at the backseat).
And if you think only a fool is willing to drive in the Philippines, wait until you drive along EDSA. Aside from the dangerous combination of city buses, provincial buses, taxis and fxs, there are yellow lanes, u-turn slots, fly-overs, underpasses and bonus MMDA traffic enforcers (or any of the city traffic enforcers like the yellow boys of Makati) waiting for every chance to get some money. There should be a game on EDSA driving. I know a lot of people who can drive in the provinces but not in Metro Manila.
Here are some tips on how to keep your sanity if you have to drive in the Philippines:
1. Prepare to press your horn (release that anger, bully that bus, blow your horn, honestly, I feel cannot drive a hornless car)
2. Prepare to curse (if those two buses suddenly swerve into your lane and your horn cannot do anything, release that anger, curse. Cursing can actually be therapeutic for drivers. But please stop cursing once you get off your car.)
3. Prepare to get lost. Driving involves skills, memory and a lot of instincts. It is okay to get lost as long as you have enough fuel, you are not late for your appointment, you will not be apprehended for entering a one way street and you are not being nagged by backseat drivers.
Wishing you all a smooth sailing 2009!
From QC to Makati.
From Baliuag (Bulacan) to the Fort (Taguig) and back.
From the Fort to QC.
From QC to Makati, to Better Living (Parañaque), to Cabuyao (Laguna), to Laiya, San Juan, Batangas then back to QC.
From QC to the Fort, then to Baliuag and Cabanatuan City, Nueva Ecija.
From QC to Cabuyao and back.
I passed through the SkyWay, the South Luzon Expressway, the Southern Tagalog Arterial Road (STAR) Tollway, and the North Luzon Express Way (I haven't been to the new Subic-Clark-Tarlac expressway).
During this driving mania, I have driven three types of vehicles, a Toyota Innova, a Honda Civic and a converted Toyota Hi-Ace (with the wiper and light switches reversed). The first two were manual, the third was automatic. It can be very confusing shifting from manual to automatic.
Driving in the Philippines is no easy feat. I have met a lot of people (foreigners and balikbayans) who are willing and able to drive abroad but not in the Philippines. Actually driving in the Philippines makes Grand Theft Auto boring. In a video game, you can always save and restart your game. You can get cheat codes and practice your maneuver.
In actual driving, game over is really game over. The risks are all too real, a bump or a scratch on a borrowed car is not easy to forgive, a confiscated license (unless you are willing to pay bribe money) is difficult to retrieve, or an accident leading to a loss of limbs or life is never an option.
One thing for sure, driving in the Philippines is never a dull moment. You have to watch out for potholes, swerving buses that move as if they are little motorcycles, motorcycles that ride a family (dad and mom with children at the front and back) also swerving as if they are buses, jeeps that suddenly stops to drop off or pick up passengers also swerving to overtake another jeep, and tricycles that tries to match the jeepneys ability to swerve. Drivers must be able to calculate and adjust (can I overtake a trike- bus- trike combo? how about a tractor- bus- trike- bus combo?). The vehicle must be able to speed up and slow down in a moment. The driver must also be able to battle lack of sleep, stress, fatigue and pesky backseat drivers (It is always easier to drive when you are at the backseat).
And if you think only a fool is willing to drive in the Philippines, wait until you drive along EDSA. Aside from the dangerous combination of city buses, provincial buses, taxis and fxs, there are yellow lanes, u-turn slots, fly-overs, underpasses and bonus MMDA traffic enforcers (or any of the city traffic enforcers like the yellow boys of Makati) waiting for every chance to get some money. There should be a game on EDSA driving. I know a lot of people who can drive in the provinces but not in Metro Manila.
Here are some tips on how to keep your sanity if you have to drive in the Philippines:
1. Prepare to press your horn (release that anger, bully that bus, blow your horn, honestly, I feel cannot drive a hornless car)
2. Prepare to curse (if those two buses suddenly swerve into your lane and your horn cannot do anything, release that anger, curse. Cursing can actually be therapeutic for drivers. But please stop cursing once you get off your car.)
3. Prepare to get lost. Driving involves skills, memory and a lot of instincts. It is okay to get lost as long as you have enough fuel, you are not late for your appointment, you will not be apprehended for entering a one way street and you are not being nagged by backseat drivers.
Wishing you all a smooth sailing 2009!
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