10 biggest losers in the 2010 national elections

 

10. Rebel soldiers

Trillanes won it big when he got a Senate seat in 2007. But after one of his court sessions, he suddenly thought of checking into Hotel Intercontinental Makati even without reservation… once a rebel soldier, always a rebel even if elected as senator. Sorry Gen. Danny Lim and Col. Ariel Querubin… we already have too many fugitive senators (where is Ping, anyway?)

 

9. Lakas Kampi CMD

The first sign was already alarming, Lakas Kampi took outsiders (non party members) as candidates for president and vice president and they were not even very popular (Gibo’s relative popularity only came after people heard him talk… if he started talking three years ago he might have won). 

 

Hit with defections, Lakas Kampi disintegrated in the last few stages of the campaign. It might also disappear into oblivion in the future. Political parties in the Philippines are personality based, usually one prominent individual or family bank-rolling the candidacies of local politicians (remember Gibo is no longer an official of the party).  I am not sure if GMA is willing to share their ill-gotten wealth to ensure her political control for the next few years. The size of their amassed wealth will allow them to do it but I am not sure by the size of greed.

 

8. Partylist system

Other than being used by traditional politicians to enter congress if they cannot be elected in their own districts, the much abused partylist system took another hit in 2010. They allowed national candidates to use their air time for their ads. It will not be surprising if hundreds (or thousands) of partylist groups will register in the future only to sell their airtime to other national candidates. And soon we will have a ballot longer than the voting queue (poor PCOS machine). 

 

7. Bayan Muna, Satur Ocampo and Liza Maza

A lot of people scratched their heads when they learned that street parliamentarians and left-leaning partylist congressmen Satur Ocampo and Liza Maza were included in the senatorial line up of one of the country’s biggest capitalists. Their problems started to mount, first they have to share the stage and dance with Bongbong Marcos. Then, Liza Maza, a feminist and women’s rights activist had to endure watching Willie Revillame’s Kendeng Girls during their campaign. When the issues of lying, stealing and possible cheating were raised against Manny Villar, they were muted. For a “rallyist” and a “street protester” to be muted is like a butterfly without wings (with 89% of votes tallied, Maza and Ocampo were in rank 25 and 26, respectively with over 3 million votes).

 

6. Loren Legarda

In 2004, Loren got more than 14 million votes. In 2010, she’ll probably end up with a little less than 4 million votes. What is wrong with Loren? She was a Lakas stalwart until it was clear that GMA will not pick her as VP in 2004, so she jumped ship and ran with FPJ. In 2010, she was hoping to run as president under the Nationalist People’s Coalition (NPC) but it seems the NPC has other plans. She slid to VP but her party’s presidential candidate (Chiz) backed out. Will she return to Lakas and run with Gibo or run with Erap (whom she helped oust by crying on national TV) or with Villar (whom she accused of corruption in connection with the C5 controversy)? She ran with Villar and the rest was history. Nevertheless, she will probably be reelected senator in 2013.

 

5. Villar Campaign team

There is a thin line between stretching the truth and lying. To say “Manny Villar was born an ordinary citizen” is true; to say “he was dirt poor and he swam in garbage” is stretching the truth. To say that his “brother died because they do not have money to buy medicines” when in fact he died because there was no cure for leukemia at that time is a lie. The campaign team also failed when they instructed Villar to issue blanket denials instead of answering issues point by point. If you are the frontrunner, you have the luxury to say “all these are black propaganda” and “all the accusations are politically motivated.” But if you are the runner up, you have to do more and prove your innocence way beyond reasonable doubt (but then again it is difficult to defend yourself if you are truly guilty and you might end up digging a deeper hole the more you speak).

 

Finally, in the advent of the internet and social networking sites (this is the first election in the Facebook and Twitter era), you can no longer rely on paid columnists and experts to defend/ promote you. Before, a professor (of public administration, perhaps) can come on TV and pretend to be unbiased and make statements saying that this candidate is good or bad. With the internet, it is very easy to search and retrieve articles in the past. Extremely biased views from paid consultants of certain candidates can be easily checked and cross referenced. A campaign is effective when ordinary netizens started copying and pasting them on their facebook and twitter accounts even if they were not paid to do so.

 

4. Mike Velarde

He was once a king-maker (he successfully endorsed GMA and Erap). He played with the idea of becoming king (president)… but with very low ratings he decided to remain a king maker. But then again, his seemingly anointed king (and business partner) was quickly losing ground in the surveys … and at the last minute, he decided not to play king maker anymore. Neither king nor king maker, Velarde will probably retain some political clout but he can quickly become a court jester unless he does something dramatic (or miraculous).

 

3. Dick Gordon

You were running in a marathon. While you are miles behind the frontrunners you badmouth everyone, the spectators, frontrunners, officials, media people and even the PA system. In elections, there are losers but some choose to lose in style, even managing to stage comebacks. Alfredo Lim, Raul Roco, Miriam Santiago and Ping Lacson all managed to win a senate seat after their failed presidential bids. I am not sure about Dick (I already saw a “like-page” for “Gibo for Senator in 2013”)… but then again, Filipinos are forgetful and forgiving. Three years from now I will not be surprised when people say “ah, tumakbo pala syang presidente nun, sayang si Roco binoto ko.”

 

2. Manny Villar

A lot of things will be written about him and his failure and I choose not to add except for one note: Hiding from the media a few days before the election makes you look like a loser.

 

1. Mar Roxas

Even if he finally wins by a “hairline”, Roxas will still be the biggest loser in this election. The thin margin makes him (and Binay) out of the running for 2016, unless they really work wonders for the next six year. He can probably win a Senate seat in 2013 and remain president of the Liberal Party but he should recognize that his opportunity has passed and must give way to other party members. He should also strive hard to make the Liberal Party more mature and less personality based. And similar to Villar, hiding from the media a few days after the election makes you look like a “such a loser, yaya!”.

5 disgusting things in Philippine politics (no. 2: House politics)

When I first thought about this entry, I was outraged by the way our politicians bastardized the party-list system.

On how a novel idea of marginal representation was abused with the entry of the sons of Mike Velarde and Eddie Villanueva as partylist representatives. Partylist representation should enable groups and sectors marginalized by our society can be represented in Congress. It turned out that the system was used by people unpopular enough to be elected as usual Congressmen in their districts to sneak into Congress.

But it only gets worse, armed with a Supreme Court decision the number of Congressmen was expanded. Hence, partylist representatives including a child of Sen. Miriam Defensor Santiago were joined by Pres. GMA's sister and her favorite general.

Not to be outdone, the regular members of the House of Representatives did something more reprehensible. They passed a resolution to convene a Constituent-Assembly (Con Ass) for Charter Change (Cha Cha). 

While I do agree that certain provisions of the constitution must be revised, this is not the right process for one simple reason: I DO NOT TRUST OUR CURRENT CONGRESSMEN AND SENATORS!!!

I DO NOT TRUST Prospero Nograles!
I DO NOT TRUST the Arroyos (there are now 4 Arroyo congresspeople)!
I DO NOT TRUST the members of political clans in Congress (that would account for about 80% to 90% of all Congressmen and Senators)!
I DO NOT TRUST pork-barrel loving politicians!
I DO NOT TRUST our district's congressman Pedro Pancho! (who is always with the administration and is related to C.M. Pancho Construction, one of the firms banned due to the World Bank Road Mess)

I DO NOT TRUST politicians in general!

5 disgusting things in Philippine politics (no. 3: Senate politics)

I just need to get this off my chest... I am really disgusted by the Philippine Senate. But I am not sure which one disgusts me the most:

1. That people like Haydee Yorac, Winnie Monsod, Perfecto Yasay and Bobby de Ocampo were denied membership to this exclusive club called the Philippine Senate.

2. That people like Jawo, Freddie Webb, Lito Lapid, Gringo, Ramon Revilla Sr., Ramon Revilla Jr. were granted membership.

   2.a. That Jamby Madrigal was granted membership after recruiting Judy Anne Santos (during the campaign, she constantly reminded people to vote for Jamby and not Juday).

3. That the Senate is willing to remove one of its members just to minimize his chances of becoming President of the Philippines even if the accusations were absurd (as Joker said, they all approved the Appropriations Bill, then they are all liable. It means that they sign laws even without reading it.).

4. That the former Senate President, who is under threat to become expelled-Senator, launched a 5minute- radio campaign ad featuring Boy Abunda to denounce the charges (what a statesman).

5. That Senator Sipag at Tiyaga dragged his daughter to a press conference to attest to his innocence in the Sentae mess (and then they ask for privacy when their children are questioned???) (what a family man)

6. That presidentiable-senators seem to be happy that the country will enter recession because it will be a good campaign piece against the administration.

7. That the Senate is spending more time doing investigations-in-aid-of-reelection instead of passing laws while we are about to enter recession.

8. That the Senate has Juan Ponce Enrile as Senate President.

9. That the Senate has Jinggoy Estrada as Senate President Pro-Tempore.

10. That the Senate has Juan Miguel Zubiri as Majority Leader.

10 million votes to elect Panlilio and Padaca in 2010

A major concern for people who expressed their excitement in news regarding the possible candidacy of Among Ed Panlilio and Grace Padaca in 2010 is their ability to win.

Some (or most) people only vote for winners. Regardless of principle, political stand or affiliation, they would never vote for a loser (or a probable loser). There is a certain level of pride when you can tell yourself that you voted for the person who won.

This mentality is very alarming. It leads to self-fulfilling prophecies. If everybody (or the majority or plurality in an election) thinks the a candidate will lose, then, no one will vote for that person, and he will definitely lose. This mentality also re-enforces the need for early campaigning and expensive media campaign, the same expensive campaigning that leads to a circle of corruption and vote buying. I hope that there will come a time that people will feel prouder when they vote for a candidate with principles no matter what.

This leads me to a crude analysis on voters decide and how elections are won in the Philippines.

FOUR GROUPS OF VOTERS
Sadly, up to 40% of votes cast are sold (the sold vote) and can be bought by the highest bidder. This can be done through direct vote buying or through organized vote buying. Direct vote buying involves giving cash, groceries, rice and other goods to registered voters. Organized vote buying involves talking to the leader of an organization, group or company. Money and/or favor is negotiated between  the leaders, and the followers vote whoever the leader dictates. The leader can be a local political leader, a union leader, an elder in the community or the head of the household.

Around 30% of the vote goes to the popular candidate ( the popular vote). Popularity may be based on different factors such as looks, gender, box-office performance, links to celebrities and other politicians, etc. Some people vote for candidates with the best campaign slogan, the prettiest or largest campaign poster, or name that is easiest to recall (hence the proliferation two-letter-named-candidates in Quezon City). Rumors can easily sway the popular vote to and from the candidates.

Only around 25% of votes can be considered as the thinking vote. Voters who thoroughly assess each and every candidate's platform, track record and political stand. Most of the thinking votes go to the least evil, after finding all candidates imperfect.

The remaining  5% of votes are cast by religious blocks.I am not sure how the religious leader decides on who his or her flock should vote. Five percent might be very small but it can decide a close race. 

CAVEATS. 
1. People can easily move from one category to the other. Some members of religious groups that practices block voting tend not to vote at all if they really cannot accept their leader's anointed candidate. Some people vote for the popular candidate even if they have sold their votes. Some people will vote for the person they really like and accept payment for the vote (iboboto ko din naman talaga sya, bonus na yung pera).

2. It is very hard to discern between the popular vote and the thinking vote. Some people may cite certain profound reasons for voting for a certain candidate, but deep inside, they vote for him because he is cute. Or the other way around, "I don't like him because of his stand on nuclear power, but really, it is just his hair style that I cannot stand."

3. The grouping of voters I presented knows no income classes, educational attainment or religious beliefs. Contrary to popular belief, you can buy the votes of rich people, you just have to pay a higher price. Not all people with college and graduate degrees vote intelligently, some vote with their religion others vote with popularity.

When making their political strategy, most politicians and their advisers consider all the groups. Politics and elections are all about addition; a candidate must be able to get some or all of each group in order to win.

In a crowded race like the coming 2010 elections, a candidate can win by as small as 20% of the vote (In 1992, Ramos won 23.6% of votes with a margin of around 875,000). There are around 45 million registered voters for the coming election, the winning candidate must get at least 10 million votes. 

And this is the tricky part in the campaign of Among Ed and Grace. They can get some of the thinking vote, some of the popular vote but definitely none of the sold vote and the religious block vote.

The hope is that the wealthy candidates (those with a war chest of PhP2 billion or more) will outbid each other and divide evenly among themselves the sold votes (40% of 45 million = 18 million sold votes divided by 4 rich candidates = 4.5 million votes each). Since these wealthy candidates are also popular, the hope is that they also divide the non-thinking popular votes (30% of 45 million = 13.5 million popular votes divided by 4 celebrity candidates = 3.375 million votes each). A rich, celebrity-type candidate can get around 8 million votes, still shy of the 10 million needed to win.

This is meant to bring good news to supporters of Panlilio- Padaca tandem. It means that by targeting 10 million thinking voters, Panlilio and Padaca can win. There is also a very strong need to convert as many voters possible from a sold voter or popular voter to a thinking candidate.

The campaign for Governors Panlilio and Padaca will never be easy, but stakes are very high and we cannot afford another corrupt and incompetent leader. We owe it to ourselves and the future generation!

Panlilio-Padaca 2010

Even if the presidential election is more than a year away, I am already announcing my support for Among Ed Panlilio and Grace Padaca (or whomever they will support in 2010). 

Previously, I have told several of my friends and colleagues that among those who have announced their intention to run for president I am likely to vote for Bayani Fernando. He has very good executive experience and a practical, can-do attitude. It seems then that he is the least among evils. I was likely to vote for him but not support and/or campaign for him.

The news about the possibility that Pampanga Governor Panlilio and Isabela Governor Padaca teaming up in 2010 brought mixed emotions. It raised my hopes up, but I fear for their safety. I imagine the groundswell of support from the grassroots and the possibility of disappointment if they lose. I have anticipated all the criticisms to be launched, character assassinations, mud slinging and all the dirty tricks than any one can think off.

Right now, the traditional political elite are cooking up plans to sabotage their campaign. Expect any or all of the following.
1. Among Ed and/or Grace Padaca have illegitimate children (this is a big issue because Among Ed is a priest while Grace is unmarried)
2. Among Ed and/or Grace Padaca had an affair with someone
3. Among Ed and/or Grace Padaca are secret NPA members or at least supported by the NPA
4. Among Ed and/or Grace Padaca are disabled hence incapable of leading (Among Ed has a skin disorder wile Grace was a polio victim. This criticism sounds stupid, biased and unfair, but their critics have no sens of fairness).
5. Among Ed and/or Grace Padaca are as corrupt as any other politician.

It will be an uphill battle and my stomach will probably turn every time I hear politicians launch any of the attacks against them. Please support them also, but please prepare for the worst.